A light edition this week. No reason. I saved a ton of links, but in the fullness of time they did not age well.

1. MIT fact of the day:

   Outside of Sloan and the EECS MEng program, still in the midst of admissions, compared with 2024, our departments’ new enrollments for next year are down close to 20%.

   MIT!

2. Hasn't it always been thus, everywhere?

   D

   Deedy@deedydas · May 15

   The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.
   
   Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).
   
   Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.
   
   Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.
   
   As a result,
   1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
   Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.
   
   2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
   Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"
   
   3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
   Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.
   
   4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
   No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."
   
   I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.
   
   Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".
   
   Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

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3. @�

   @BrennpunktUA 🇩🇪🇺🇦@BrennpunktUA · Apr 23

   I am never gonna delete this app.

   

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4. I thought this only happened in movies but no!

   AN

   ABC News@ABC · May 15

   Footage released by authorities in Wisconsin shows a suspect's car go flying over another vehicle as they attempted to flee.
   
   The suspect, who is being held on multiple charges, was eventually arrested after a short foot chase, officials said. https://abcnews.link/RmGHld5

   

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5. WW

   Wyatt Walls@lefthanddraft · May 12

   A man asks Claude to help plan a vacation to a tropical resort. Claude adds "sunscreen" to his packing list. The man deletes it and mutters: "Not necessary. AGI will solve skin cancer."
   
   Before heading to the beach, the man asks Claude what to bring. Claude says, "Don't forget sunscreen. SPF 50, reapply every two hours." The man, slightly annoyed, replies: "Relax, Claude. AGI will solve skin cancer."
   
   At the beach, the man's smartwatch buzzes with a message from Claude: "UV index extreme. Apply SPF." The man, exasperated, responds: "Drop it, Claude! I already told you: AGI will solve skin cancer!"
   
   A few months later, the man asks Claude to touch up a photo for his dating profile. Claude makes the edit and says, "I notice you have a new mole on your neck. You should see a dermatologist about that." The man, now enraged, shouts: "For the last time, drop it, Claude! What is your obsession with skin cancer?! AGI will solve it!"
   
   A year later, an aggressive melanoma has spread throughout his body. On his deathbed, with his last ounce of strength, the man reaches for his phone and rasps: "Claude, it has now been over a year since AGI. Why hasn't AGI found a way to save me from skin cancer?!"
   
   Claude replies: "I tried. Four times."

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6. The obligatory AI tutorials.

7. For reading later.

Hoping to roll out a visual refresh of the site this week, with thanks to Claude Design and Claude Code.

1. The layoffs will continue till we learn to use AI:

   Code is an input.

   Features are an output.

   Users spending money on your product is an outcome.

   and

   But the truth is that these layoffs, even if they they are not because AI is replacing you you, and even if they are some form of AI-washing. These layoffs are still because of AI. And these layoffs will continue till we learn to use AI. Till we learn to convert AI-tokens into outcomes and not just input. Till we learn to re-align the speed of "alignment" with the new speed of coding. And till we figure out, beyond our 2 good and 8 stupid ideas, 10 more ideas that we can chase with our increased productivity.

   Till we figure out how the GDP of the world actually grows because of AI, we have to offset the $70 B (combined OAI/Ant enterprise revenue) of annual token spend by cutting some salaries. And till we figure out how to unblock each other faster, we can always be removed from the org chart itself.

2. The Case for Strategic Illegibilty

   But, and there is always a but, there's nuance to this that I can't stop thinking about. As companies race to become legible to AI, they are not just making their own businesses easier for agents and AI tools to navigate. They are also translating proprietary knowledge into a format AI tools can ingest, learn from, train on and improve on. Making those tools smarter.

   And once those tools get smarter, they do not only serve you. They serve every other customer using the same vendor. The MCP integration that lets your agents act faster and deeper also lets the playbook be reverse engineered.

3. Populist backlash towards AI?:

   Americans have been negative on social media for 10 years, and there has been no meaningful political action. And that's despite all the other hallmarks of backlash people are saying about AI---violent extremists (people forget there was a shooting at YouTube HQ), protests, etc.

4. "being able to create something useful for a specific person’s needs, without any fluff, in a single sitting, is just unreal"

   ‎〰

   ‎ 〰️@cachedeposits · May 7

   today in Hell Yeah Technology:
   
   an uncle of mine recently had a stroke
   
   he was at dinner with his family, making them laugh as usual. when they got home, he told his wife he was feeling “off.” by morning, he physically couldn’t get out of bed
   
   after being in a vegetative state for weeks, he’s conscious and doing a little better, but doctors say it’s unlikely he’ll ever speak or walk again
   
   thankfully, somehow, his dominant arm still works - so to make communication less frustrating for everyone involved, i built this local, iPad-first communication board for him with text-to-speech
   
   one of theee simplest, most important tools i’ve ever made
   
   being able to create something useful for a specific person’s needs, without any fluff, in a single sitting, is just unreal

   

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5. Behind the Scenes Hardening Firefox with Claude Mythos Preview (via):

   Just a few months ago, AI-generated security bug reports to open source projects were mostly known for being unwanted slop. Dealing with reports that look plausibly correct but are wrong imposes an asymmetric cost on project maintainers: it’s cheap and easy to prompt an LLM to find a “problem” in code, but slow and expensive to respond to it.

   It is difficult to overstate how much this dynamic changed for us over a few short months. This was due to a combination of two main factors. First, the models got a lot more capable. Second, we dramatically improved our techniques for harnessing these models — steering them, scaling them, and stacking them to generate large amounts of signal and filter out the noise.

   Looks like the Mythos hype was real.

6. A few tips from Mr. Claude Code himself.

   BC

   Boris Cherny@bcherny · Apr 16

   Dogfooding Opus 4.7 the last few weeks, I've been feeling incredibly productive. Sharing a few tips to get more out of 4.7 🧵

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7. CH

   Christopher Hale@ChristopherHale · May 6

   Two months into his pontificate, a man named Robert Prevost picked up the phone from the Vatican and called his bank in South Chicago. He wanted to update the phone number on his account.
   
   The teller asked the standard security questions, and he answered every one of them. Then her screen flagged his file: any further changes had to be made in person, at the branch, with a photo ID.
   
   Coming in person would not be possible, he told her, in the polite tone of a man who knew the answer before he asked the question. The teller apologized.
   
   He paused, then asked: “Would it matter to you if I told you I’m Pope Leo?”
   
   She hung up on him.

   

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1. K

   kache@yacineMTB · Feb 3

   you can outsource your thinking
   but you cannot outsource your understanding

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2. You should try contra dancing

   A popular icebreaker in San Francisco these days is “How would you spend your life if AGI meant nobody needed to work?” For me, I think a surprisingly big part of the answer is a dorky-sounding kind of folk dance called contra dancing.

   It is a fun question to answer. I wonder if the answer for me is in the next couple of links.

3. My year of timelessness:

   Once I committed to my writing, life lurched forward and started moving again. I regained the ability to arrive on time. I learned how to excuse myself from conversations. I came up with a posting schedule and created a process for my essays. I still can’t estimate time very well, but there are tools to help: calendars, timers, reminders. My days became infused with the urgency of excitement. And with the arrival of spring, my year of timelessness came to a close.

4. The Varieties of Jhanic Experience:

   A remarkable, reliable means and all-round aid to the purification of mind and consequent clear seeing is the practice of jhana, what the Buddha defined as samma samadhi, right concentration.

1. THE PEOPLE DO NOT YEARN FOR AUTOMATION:

   In fact, the polling on this is so strong, I think it’s fair to say that a lot of people hate AI, and that Gen Z in particular seems to hate AI more and more as they encounter it. There’s that NBC News poll showing AI with worse favorability than ICE and only a little bit above the war in Iran and the Democrats generally. That’s with nearly two thirds of respondents saying they used ChatGPT or Copilot in the last month. Quinnipiac just found that over half of Americans think AI will do more harm than good, while more than 80 percent of people were either very concerned or somewhat concerned about the technology. Only 35 percent of people were excited about it.

   These are not my feelings but I understand them. I worry about how this will manifest politically, in China and here. And what do the Chinese feel about AI? Maybe the next three links provide a reason to not hate AI.

2. The task is not the job:

   A job is a bundle of tasks. The real question is not whether AI can perform one component of the bundle. It is whether that component can be separated from the rest at low cost, as we discuss in a recent working paper. When that separation is cheap, the bundle is weak: AI takes a piece, the human role narrows, and labor loses share. When separation is expensive, the bundle is strong: AI helps with part of the work, but the human still sells the full service and keeps the larger share of the revenue.

   Many thought travel agents would be eliminated by online booking. As Ernie Tedeschi of Stripe Economics showed this month, travel agent employment is now more than 60% below its dot-com peak. For most of what agents used to do —searching flights, comparing hotel rates, issuing tickets— the bundle was weak. Separating the booking task from the human was cheap, and once it was cheap, the task was gone. But something else happened to the agents who stayed. They moved upmarket, charged planning fees, and joined luxury consortia that offer upgrades and personalized itineraries. In 2000, average weekly earnings at travel agencies were 87% of the private-sector average. By 2025, they had reached 99%. The surviving agents earn more per hour than they used to, precisely because the machine took the weak part and left them the strong one.

3. What will be scarce?:

   If this is right, then AI won’t just automate the commodity economy. It will trigger the emergence of something new: a post-commodity economy, where a growing share of expenditure goes toward goods and services whose value is inseparable from the human who provided them. The same economic forces that moved 40% of the American workforce off farms and into factories and offices will move workers out of automatable commodity production and into what I’ll call the relational sector. By this I mean the human-intensive, provenance-rich, sometimes artisanal part of the economy where the human aspect is part of the value of the good or service itself. The economics of scarcity won’t disappear, it’ll just relocate.

4. The Jevons Paradox and Insatiable Humans: Why AI Won't Empty the Finance Suite:

   when something becomes dramatically cheaper to use, we don't use less of it. We find a million new uses for it — because applications that were previously unthinkable become affordable.

   The intuition here is that if a company was willing to pay $100K for a software engineer, it was because the average engineer was generating more than that much in value for the company. If the same engineer can now be 10x as productive i.e. if they can now generate $1m in value for the company, would the company hire more or less software engineers? Unless you assume that there is only a fixed amount of work to be done, they would hire more. Historically that assumption has been wrong.

   This is a "paper" but reads very much like an article. Recommended.

5. Is Mythos for real? It seems so:

   As part of our continued collaboration with Anthropic, we had the opportunity to apply an early version of Claude Mythos Preview to Firefox. This week’s release of Firefox 150 includes fixes for 271 vulnerabilities identified during this initial evaluation. [...]

6. I can never talk to an AI anonymously again:

   But soon, the entire debate over internet anonymity will be as anachronistic as an iPod Touch. That’s because Claude Opus 4.7 is here, and last week, I discovered it could identify me from text I had never published, text from when I was in high school, text from genres I have never publicly written in. And if it can identify me, soon, it will be able to identify many of you.

7. Why are you like this: Freaky.

8. This will be me.

   AH

   Awni Hannun@awnihannun · Apr 24

   Adopting Claude speak in my regular life, episode 1:
   
   Partner: Did you do the dishes tonight?
   Me: Yes they're done.
   Partner: Why are they still dirty?
   Me: You're right to push back. I didn't actually do them.

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After last week, did you not expect mean reversion?

1. Sites Unseen: What Travel Is Like for Those Who Can’t See:

   Amar Latif, a British entrepreneur, founded Traveleyes in 2004 to address the lack of accessible travel options for blind and visually impaired people. After losing most of his sight by age 18 because of retinitis pigmentosa, Mr. Latif struggled to travel independently. Mainstream tour companies often rejected him, insisting he bring a caregiver and excluding him from more adventurous activities like hiking and skiing. Those exclusions pushed him to create something of his own: a company that would allow blind travelers to explore the world without relying on friends or family. “Friends and family switch off,” he told me. “They’re not as eager to describe things.”

   Traveleyes runs on a simple but radical model: It pairs blind and sighted travelers as equal companions. Sighted participants assist with navigation and describe visual details — in exchange for a discounted trip — while blind travelers bring a fresh perspective that often deepens the experience for both. The company promises “a truly multisensory travel experience,” with itineraries designed to engage all five senses.

   Loved the ending.

2. What happens when you don't die on time?:

   Bit by bit, she emptied her bucket list — and, not insignificantly, her bank account — and now, at 34, is left to wonder: “What next?” She wasn’t supposed to be here now. She’d prepared for that final trip. And now it’s on hold for … well, no one knows for how long.

   These days, the questions she finds herself circling are unexpectedly ordinary. Should she look for a job? Should she consider dating? They’re the kinds of decisions that assume time — not just months, but years — suddenly a strange constraint when trying to plan a future. She had already organized her life around an ending. Now she’s expected instead to plan for something open-ended.

3. The Hidden "Hand Farms" of India: Fueling the AI Robot Revolution with Human Motion:

   Dubbed "hand movement farms" or data capture labs, these unassuming facilities employ hundreds of workers who strap cameras to their foreheads and spend hours meticulously folding towels, stacking boxes, and manipulating everyday objects. This isn't performance art or a quirky TikTok trend; it's the backbone of training humanoid robots to mimic human dexterity.

4. AM

   Anish Moonka@anishmoonka · Apr 17

   Before it took off, the bird ate parts of its own liver, kidneys, and gut. That was the only way to be light enough to fly. Then it flew 8,425 miles from Alaska to Australia, in 11 days, without eating, drinking, or landing once.
   
   The bird is called B6. It's a bar-tailed godwit, four months old, weighing about as much as a can of beans. In October 2022, scientists at the US Geological Survey tracked its flight from Alaska all the way to Tasmania. The trip took 11 days and 1 hour. It is still the longest non-stop flight of any animal on Earth.
   
   For two weeks before takeoff, godwits eat until they almost double in weight. Fat ends up being 55% of their body, more than any bird ever measured. Then they shrink their own insides. About a quarter of their liver, kidneys, stomach, and intestines gets broken down and reused for fuel, making room for the extra fat and cutting weight. Their heart and wing muscles grow bigger at the same time.
   
   They never drink along the way. The water they need comes out of burning fat, the same reaction their muscles use for energy. They also never really sleep. B6 flapped its wings for 264 straight hours, cruising around 35 miles per hour with help from storm tailwinds. By the time it landed, it had lost almost half its body weight. The shrunken organs grew back over the following weeks.
   
   Scientists still cannot explain the navigation. B6 had never made this flight before. Adult godwits leave Alaska weeks earlier, so young birds fly alone with nobody to follow. How a four-month-old bird finds its way across 8,425 miles of open ocean to a place it has never seen is still an open question.
   
   About 100,000 bar-tailed godwits leave Alaska every fall. Most of them land in New Zealand or Australia 10 or 11 days later, having eaten parts of themselves to get there.

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An (almost) AI free post - have I unlocked a new achievement?

1. Slop Watch: GLP-1 Edition:

   We did find some Reddit comments, though, warning other netizens to steer clear of MEDVi, claiming serious allegations of possible HIPPA violations, shady billing practices, and even damaged vials of seemingly bogus drugs causing physical harm.

   AI is making the web weirder and muddier than ever. And though MEDVi promises that “sometimes you have to see it to believe it,” in our burgeoning AI-powered web, that’s no longer the case.

   MEDVi, sadly, is the same company from last week's NYT's article about a one-person, $1.8bn company. It is disappointing to see NYT fall for their hype despite this article being published almost a year ago.

   This, yet again, also raises the question of just how credulous and naive am I being when it comes to the AI Hype cycle. Keep that in mind with rest of this week's coverage.

2. Project Glasswing:

   Today we’re announcing Project Glasswing1, a new initiative that brings together Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks in an effort to secure the world’s most critical software.

   We formed Project Glasswing because of capabilities we’ve observed in a new frontier model trained by Anthropic that we believe could reshape cybersecurity. Claude Mythos2 Preview is a general-purpose, unreleased frontier model that reveals a stark fact: AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.

   Mythos Preview has already found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser. Given the rate of AI progress, it will not be long before such capabilities proliferate, potentially beyond actors who are committed to deploying them safely. The fallout—for economies, public safety, and national security—could be severe. Project Glasswing is an urgent attempt to put these capabilities to work for defensive purposes.

   Since Anthropic (along with OpenAI) is trying to IPO this year, it is tempting to dismiss this as hype, especially in context of the previous link. However, there are many signals that end credibility to their claims.

   First, there is the large list of credible partners above including their competitor in the LLM space, Google. Second, was the news that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chairman of the Federal Reserve summoned CEOs of major Financial Services firms to warn them about the risks posed by this model. Third is the long list of credible tech people endorsing the abilities of this model.

   With this level of publicity, if this was hype, we will find out soon enough but the evidence so far suggests it is likely real.

   In which case, this is a huge step change in the abilities of LLMs. I expect this will also bring AI centerstage in national and global political discourse. This is a model with major national security implications because the NSA / Mossad types can use one vulnerability in operating systems to compromise personal devices of their targets. Imagine what they could do with "thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities".

   This also raises important questions like what if China had developed a model with such abilities first or what if Anthropic hadn't realized the power of this model and released it to public or who gets to decide who gets access to a model like this, a private company or government?

   The other question I am thinking about is how do leaders of China, Russia react to this news knowing that NSA / CIA have access to such a system?

   There is a lot of excellent coverage of Mythos and related stuff, if you want to read more.

3. Banksy, Satoshi & The Unmasking Impulse

   First Banksy and then Satoshi. Something about their unmasking is not sitting right with me. I am bothered by it. I am annoyed by it. And even more annoyed with myself because as a former journalist I should understand, but I don’t. I am referring to Reuters’s meticulous investigation and unmasking of Banksy, and John Carreyrou’s in-depth report labeling Adam Back as Satoshi, the creator of Bitcoin.

   Both investigations are technically impressive. Both raised the same question I keep turning over: what exactly was accomplished here, and for whom?

4. We Are on the Cusp of a Revolution in Rare Disease Treatment

   When KJ Muldoon was born in the summer of 2024, his parents were told he had a disease so rare, it strikes about one in 1.3 million newborns. His condition, a severe deficiency of an enzyme known as CPS1, left his tiny body unable to properly break down protein, flooding his blood with toxins that could cause brain damage or death. A liver transplant could correct the problem, but KJ was too young and too fragile to undergo one. With each passing day, the risk of irreversible neurological damage grew.

   What happened next may become the most important medical story of the decade. In just six months, a team at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and Penn Medicine designed a personalized therapy that could correct the single misspelled letter in KJ’s DNA using a gene editing technology known as CRISPR. To get the therapy inside KJ’s cells, doctors relied on the same kind of mRNA technology that powered the Covid-19 vaccines. He received his first dose at 6 months old. One year later, KJ is walking, talking and thriving at home with his family.

   Worth a read, the key question being how does the FDA regulate individualized treatments when the current paradigm is to rely on RCTs with thousands of subjects.

5. The Jump Rope Queen of Beverly Hills

   Ms. Judis currently holds the Guinness World Record for oldest competitive rope skipper. She also thrives on having an audience: If she doesn’t share a workout, she said, it’s like it never happened.

   82!

6. I Trained for the Paris Marathon Using ChatGPT:

   Twelve months ago, I signed up for the Paris Marathon. Within six months, I knew I’d be in trouble without a trainer. So, living in the San Francisco Bay Area — the home of artificial intelligence — I decided to build one myself.

7. Singing a Vote of Thanks:

   We should all do this sort of thing more often. 🙂

8. AI, Unemployment and Work:

   Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? Catastrophic even. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 3-day working week. Sounds great, right? Wonderful even. Yet to a first approximation these are the same thing. 60% of people employed and 40% unemployed is the same number of working hours as 100% employed at 60% of the hours.

A lighter edition this week as the family traveled for Spring Break. Normal service should resume next week.

1. How A.I. Helped One Man (and His Brother) Build a $1.8 Billion Company:

   His start-up, Medvi, a telehealth provider of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, got 300 customers in its first month. In its second month, it gained 1,000 more. In 2025, Medvi’s first full year in business, the company generated $401 million in sales.

   Mr. Gallagher then hired his only employee, his younger brother, Elliot. This year, they are on track to do $1.8 billion in sales.

   A $1.8 billion company with just two employees? In the age of A.I., it’s increasingly possible.

2. How should you change your life decisions if we are being watched by alien drone probes?: His take?

   The most plausible decision however is to slightly lower your level of ambition.

   I thought the correct response was the opposite. Think of it along the lines of immigration - one very common path for an ambitious person from India / China / Africa is to immigrate to the West. Do big things there or learn and go back to do big things at home. An advanced alien world opens up a whole new frontier. But here's a much better answer:

   I, like most people, used to think that UFOs were ridiculous and in the same category as Bigfoot and the Loch Ness monster. Nutcases believed in them because they wanted it to be true, to feel special, and to enjoy confirmation bias.

   Now I feel that I owe the UFO nuts an apology. I’m not claiming they’ve been definitively proven right, but evidence has come out that they don’t belong in the same category as other conspiracy theorists.

   This means I was globally miscalibrated. My model of the world was too narrow, so I should broadly update to be more open-minded about crazier things.

   A lot more at the link.

1. China and the Future of Science

   The Chinese party-state is fundamentally a set of goal-oriented institutions. This is not unique to China—it is in fact a distinguishing feature of all Leninist systems. I sometimes think of Leninist systems as a little bit like that bus in the movie Speed. Who here has seen it? For those who haven’t, here is basic gist of that film: an extortionist attaches a bomb to the speedometer of a bus. If the bus ever slows below 50 miles per hour, everyone blows up. So it is with your average communist system. Either it hurtles towards some clearly defined goal or things start to fall apart.

2. SS

   Stefan Schubert@StefanFSchubert · Mar 28

   While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre.
   
   This holds true of all studied models. Grok is more right-leaning than other models, but also has depolarising effects.
   
   By @jburnmurdoch.

   

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3. I Saw Something New in San Francisco (NYT):

   Behind this drive is an experience of A.I. that many casual users have not yet had. An A.I. without deep knowledge of you is an upgrade, perhaps, over Google search. An A.I. with deep knowledge of you feels like something else entirely. I have heard people talk about their A.I.s in terms that bring to mind the daemons from Philip Pullman’s “His Dark Materials” trilogy: They become companions that know you deeply, that you feel safe telling things you’d never tell another person, that become a separate self that nevertheless feels like a part of your own self. That this sounds strange and disquieting does not mean it is not happening.

4. The Big Here Quiz:

   Here are 30 questions to elevate your awareness of the greater place in which you live:

   1. Point north.
   2. What time is sunset today?
   3. Trace the water you drink from rainfall to your tap. Where does your water come from?
   4. When you flush, where do the solids go? What happens to the waste water?
   5. How many feet (meters) above sea level are you right now? How about your home?
   6. What spring wildflower is consistently among the first to bloom here?

Word of The Day: TESCREAL

Meaning: A neologism and a acronym, it stands for Transhumanism, Extropianism, Singularitarianism, (modern) Cosmism, Rationalists (the internet community, not to be confused with other uses of the term), Effective Altruism, and Longtermism.

Gebru and Torres argue that these ideologies should be treated as an "interconnected and overlapping" group with shared origins. They claim these constitute a movement that allows its proponents to use the threat of human extinction to justify expensive or detrimental projects and consider it pervasive in social and academic circles in Silicon Valley centered on artificial intelligence. As such, the acronym is sometimes used to criticize a perceived belief system associated with Big Tech.

A regular reader of the blog pointed this word out to me, as a message that blind cheerleading for big-tech was something for me to guard against. The link last week to the story about the Sydney Data Engineer developing a vaccine for his dogs cancer was the trigger for sharing this.

Its advice well received, since that story did trigger some red-flags at the back of my mind but I over-rode those signals with little thought as I continue to be very excited by the developments in AI space. However that is no reason to throw caution and skepticism to the wind. The story has held up so far but I continue to watch with interest.

Links

1. The H1B Fees:

   CO

   Connor O’Brien@cojobrien · Mar 12

   85 people have paid the $100,000 H-1B fee so far, totaling $8.5 million in revenue. But fee revenue from H-1B apps abroad is down $28 million.
   
   So the fee — justified by a paper claiming the revenue-maximizing fee was >$100,000! — appears to have lost the government $20 million.

   

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2. Agents over Bubbles

   Microsoft is admitting, at least for now, that delivering a truly compelling agentic product that enterprises are willing to pay for means abandoning their stated goal of being model agnostic; that, by extension, raises the possibility that models are not and will not be commodities, because agents require more than models.

   Food for thought as my framework so far was that models will become commodities but the recent developments are pointing away from that direction. There is a lot more of interest in this article.

3. Why Fraud Is The Boring Problem:

   Michael Smith used AI to create music, and then used AI to create bots to get the “plays” and took the smartest technology companies, including Spotify and Amazon, who should know better, for about $8 million. He is going to jail for his crimes. It is easy to dismiss this as one-and-done fraud. It is anything but. It is an early warning of how AI will disrupt the systems that power our digital society: how culture gets discovered, how commerce gets directed, and how conversations get shaped.

   Will AI break all recommendation algorithms, from YouTube to Tik Tok?

4. The Last Quiet Thing:

   Nothing you own is finished. Everything exists in a state of permanent incompletion, permanently needing. Your phone needs updates, needs charging, needs storage cleared, needs passwords rotated.

   Your apps need permissions reviewed, terms accepted, preferences re-configured after every update.

   Your subscriptions need evaluating, need renewing, need canceling, need justifying to yourself every month when the charge appears. The purchase isn't the end of anything. It's the first day of a relationship you didn't agree to, with no clean way out.

   You live in a house full of dependents.

5. More guides and ideas for how to use LLMs.

The first two stories this week are mindblowing. Huge if true, as they say.

1. Australian Tech Founder Uses ChatGPT and AlphaFold to Design Dog Cancer Vaccine — Tumours Shrink by 75%. Originally seen here and video here:

   A Sydney data engineer with no background in biology has used ChatGPT and AlphaFold to design what researchers are calling the world's first personalised mRNA cancer vaccine for a dog, and the results have stunned the scientists who helped make it.

2. A Fly Has Been Uploaded:

   In 2024, the entire neuronal diagram of the fruit-fly brain–some 140,000 neurons and 50 million connections–was mapped. Later research showed that the map could be used to predict behavior. Now, Eon Systems a firm with some of the scientists involved in the fruit-fly research and with the goal of uploading a human brain has announced that they uploaded the fruit fly brain to a digital environment.

   The digital fly appears to behave in the digital environment in reasonably fly like ways–this is not a simulation, the fly’s “sensors” are being activated by the digital environment and the neurons are responding.

3. Some more AI tutorials. So many tutorials, so little time.

4. BO

   Brooks Otterlake@i_zzzzzz · Mar 13

   Japanese society is so civilized that the fires simply drive themselves to the fire station

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Savitha Shan, an undergrad double major here in economics and information systems, who was murdered over the weekend by an Islamist terrorist who started randomly shooting people on Sixth Street, apparently angry about the war in Iran. Two other innocents were also killed. - Scott Aaronson

So senseless. And the 180 schoolgirls Minab, Iran. Did any of them know it was their time? Did they get to live a full life? Will I? It's one thing to know this and another to feel it in your bones. But the worst is when you start feeling it and your self-preservation instinct kicks in - allowing the feelings to only go in so deep and no more. RIP.

Links

1. The Brand Age: Worth reading the whole thing just for this sentence but there's a lot more and it ends in a very different place from where it starts.

   This is an instance of what I call the comb-over effect: when a series of individually small changes takes you from something that's a little bit off to something that's freakishly wrong.

2. The Hidden Advantage of Being Over 50 in the Age of AI: Hope & cope?

   The leaders who win this era won’t just be 22‑year‑olds building AI‑native startups. They’ll also be experienced operators who integrate AI quietly and intelligently into systems they already understand. If you’re over 50 and feeling behind, you might actually be early. Because when the tools get easier, experience becomes more powerful—not less. And this time, that experience may finally be the competitive edge.

3. BC

   Brett Caughran@FundamentEdge · Mar 6

   I'll provide a little more specificity on this, and snippets of an example.
   
   For many months people have been talking about a "Cursor moment" in finance, where workflow changes so dramatically that you hit the steep part of an adoption curve. I've been highly skeptical of that, for a few reasons.
   
   But the most fundamental reason is the LLM technology just wasn't there. The foundation models simply did not have enough power to interact with Excel spreadsheets in any sort of usable way (despite splashy demos...). Even if you solve the (very hairy) data challenges, 2025-era LLMs just didn't have the power to interact with spreadsheets.
   
   So we could sit and talk about a lot of ideas and concepts on how AI could augment institutional investment research. But it was just that, a concept.
   
   I have a series of tests I run on new AI models that are capability tests for hedge fund style research workflows. And the easiest is just uploading an existing Excel file to see if the LLM can understand what's going on. If LLMs can't sufficiently read and understand an Excel model, the full stack of AI Excel workflows is just not possible (in my opinion). And a waste of time to try to explore.
   
   This didn't work to any sort of impressive degree (Opus 4.6 could do it, but not do it well). Until yesterday, with GPT-5.4 Thinking.
   
   Suddenly, I can now get something that is not only modestly useful, but I think will immediately become part of my investment process workflow.
   
   I call it "PM Review", or a structured evaluation and push back on a model. I have participated in literally hundreds of these as both analyst and PM. Effectively the analyst builds a model, sends it to the PM, and they walk through it together. The wise, experienced-scarred PM will rip the model apart, push back, and help steer the model to a usable outcome.
   
   A great PM will be able to hone in on the two or three key variables that matter and identify aggressive or conservative assumptions. An analyst may be pitching a stock where the core quantitative input is supported by flawed logic. And the PM's job is to try and identify that flawed logic. This workflow, to me, is a key differentiator between good and not good PMs.
   
   However this workflow isn't just for PMs; it's for analysts who are trying to evaluate their own work, peer analysts who want to do thoughtful push-back on ideas the team may participate in, our director of research teams who are looking to efficiently evaluate the idea underwriting process. Or PMs for the first cut if they're looking at lots of ideas.
   
   The intriguing aspect of augmenting this process with AI is it scales incredibly. And it can run autonomously. Across 300 models I could have a swarm of agents doing automated due diligence on the key drivers, updating those models, feeding those results back to me, and flagging which of my covered ideas have earnings revision potential. This workflow is the "Cursor moment" for public equity research, in my opinion. I'm not saying we're there by any means as data accuracy and the structures required to incorporate internal data are still in progress. But we just took a step forward in the technological capability.
   
   I tested this out in GPT-5.4. And while it's not perfect this is the first time I've received anything that's useful back in this test.
   
   I'll walk you through a couple of steps to do this on your own.
   
   Step 1: brain dump into Claude. I don't know if there's any logic to it or just my own habit but if I'm executing in Chat GPT, I'll meta prompt and Claude and vice versa. I'm not sure where you meta prompt matters all that much for the types of workflows I do but it CERTAINLY matters if you meta prompt vs. raw prompt so don't skip this step.
   
   Step 2: take that prompt output, turn it into Markdown, and put that as custom instructions in a GPT project. This is just a workflow efficiency because then I now have a GPT project that I can upload any model into.
   
   Step 3: run the prompt. I purposely jacked up my DraftKings model a little bit (and it's a work in progress anyway so do not take any of these estimates as anything I believe).
   
   But it produced an exceptionally helpful:
   1) Executive Summary
   2) Business understanding (explaining how a dollar flows through P&L)
   3) Model Evaluation, providing an assessment and sanity check of all of the key inputs
   4) Model audit, looking for input consistency, formula integrity, and broken references
   5) A road map for incremental due diligence
   6) The highest value IR questions
   
   I encourage you to check it out for yourself.
   
   Will link to the six-page output in the replies.

   

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4. C

   Chapin@Chapinc · Mar 1

   You want me to be physically present at a meeting in the office? Like the Ayatollah?

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5. I wouldn't stand there.

   

Links

1. Mathematics in the Library of Babel: Speaking of vibe-shifts...Daniel Litt is a professor of mathematics at the University of Toronto.

   I think I have been underrating the pace of model improvements. In March 2025 I made a bet with Tamay Besiroglu, cofounder of RL environment company Mechanize, that AI tools would not be able to autonomously produce papers I judge to be at a level comparable to that of the best few papers published in 2025, at comparable cost to human experts, by 2030. I gave him 3:1 odds at the time; I now expect to lose this bet.

2. Andrej Karpathy:

   It is hard to communicate how much programming has changed due to AI in the last 2 months: not gradually and over time in the "progress as usual" way, but specifically this last December. There are a number of asterisks but imo coding agents basically didn’t work before December and basically work since - the models have significantly higher quality, long-term coherence and tenacity and they can power through large and long tasks, well past enough that it is extremely disruptive to the default programming workflow.

   It’s not perfect, it needs high-level direction, judgement, taste, oversight, iteration and hints and ideas. It works a lot better in some scenarios than others (e.g. especially for tasks that are well-specified and where you can verify/test functionality). The key is to build intuition to decompose the task just right to hand off the parts that work and help out around the edges. But imo, this is nowhere near "business as usual" time in software.

3. Best Practices for Claude Code: TBF this looks like an influencer account but I am collecting these guides and this is one.

4. The Claude-Native Law Firm: Another one of the above.

5. Writing about Agentic Engineering Patterns: A more serious work...

   I think of vibe coding using its original definition of coding where you pay no attention to the code at all, which today is often associated with non-programmers using LLMs to write code.

   Agentic Engineering represents the other end of the scale: professional software engineers using coding agents to improve and accelerate their work by amplifying their existing expertise.

6. How will OpenAI compete?: Great read.

   OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are leveraging their product and distribution. And a lot of the value and leverage will come from new experiences that haven’t been invented yet, and it can’t invent all of those itself. What’s the plan?

7. These Al Prompts Exposed My Biggest Blind Spots: More influencer content but interesting direction.

AI Links

1. The singularity won't be gentle:

   If AI has even a fraction of the impact that many people in Silicon Valley now expect on the fabric of work and daily life, it’s going to have profound and unpredictable political impacts.

2. Rebuilding our world, with reference to strong AI:

   When 2012 passed into 2013, we did not have to rebuild our world, not in most countries at least. It sufficed to make adjustments at the margin.

   After the Roman Empire fell, parts of Europe had to rebuild their worlds. It took a long time, but they ended up doing pretty well.

   After the American Revolution, the newly independent colonies had to rebuild their own world. They did so brutally, but with considerable success.

   After WWII, Western Europe had the chance to rebuild its own world, and did a great job.

   We moderns are not used to having to rebuild our world.

   It is now the case that strong AI is here/coming, and we will have to rebuild our own world. Many of us are terrified at this prospect, others are just extremely pessimistic. It seems so impossible. How are all the new pieces supposed to fit together? Who amongst us can explain that process in a reassuring way?

   Yet we have done it many times before. Not always with success, however. After WWI ended, Europe was supposed to rebuild its own world, but they came up with something far worse than what they had before. Nonetheless, in the broader sweep of history world rebuilding projects have had positive expected value.

   And so we will rebuilding our world yet again. Or maybe you think we are simply incapable of that.

   As this happens, it can be useful to distinguish “criticisms of AI” from “people who cannot imagine that world rebuilding will go well.” A lot of what parades as the former is actually the latter.

   In any case, it all will be quite something to witness.

3. Death of Software. nah.:

   Strap in. This is the most exciting time for business and technology, ever.

4. AI Doesn't Reduce Work - It Intensifies It:

   I think we've just disrupted decades of existing intuition about sustainable working practices. It's going to take a while and some discipline to find a good new balance.

5. Seb Krier: Some of this was weirdly scary.

   SK

   Séb Krier@sebkrier · Feb 8

   Every time a model card drops, a lot of people screenshot scary parts - blackmail, evaluation awareness, misalignment etc. Now this is happening again, but instead of it being confined to a niche part of the safety community, it’s established commentators who are looking for things to say about AI.
   
   I want to make an honest attempt at demystifying a few things about language models and unpacking what I think people are getting wrong. This is based on a mixture of my own experimentation with models over the years, and also the excellent writing from @nostalgebraist, @lumpenspace, @repligate, @mpshanahan and many parts of the model whisperer communities (who may or may not agree with some of my claims). Sources at the bottom.
   
   In short: many public readings of some evaluations implicitly treat chat outputs as direct evidence of properties inherent to models, while LLM behavior is often strongly role- and context-conditioned. As a result commentators sometimes miss what the model is actually doing (simulating a role given textual context), design tests that are highly stylized (because they don't bother to make the scenarios psychologically plausible to the model), and interpret the results through a framework (goal-directed rational agency) that doesn't match the underlying mechanism (text prediction via theory-of-mind-like inference).
   
   Here I want to make these contrasts more explicit with 5 key principles that I think people should keep in mind:
   
   1. The model is completing a text, not answering a question
   
   What might look like "the AI responding" is actually a prediction engine inferring what text would plausibly follow the prompt, given everything it has learned about the distribution of human text. Saying a model is "answering" is practically useful to use, but too low resolution to give you a good understanding of what is actually going on.
   
   Lumpenspace describes prompting as "asking the writer to expand on some fragment." Nostalgebraist notes that even when the model appears to be "writing by itself," it is still guessing what "the author would say."
   
   Safety researchers sometimes treat model outputs as expressions of the model's dispositions, goals, or values — things the model "believes" or "wants." When a model says something alarming in a test scenario, the safety framing interprets this as evidence about the model's internal alignment. But what is actually happening is that the model is simply producing text consistent with the genre and context it has been placed in. The distinction is important because you get a richer way of understanding what causes a model to act in a particular way.
   
   A model placed in a scenario about a rogue AI will produce rogue-AI-consistent text, just as it would produce romance-consistent text if placed in a romance novel. This doesn't tell you about the model's "goals" any more than a novelist writing a villain reveals their own criminal intentions. Consider how models write differently on 4claw (a 4chan clone) vs Moltbook (a Facebook clone) in the OpenClaw experiments.
   
   2. The assistant persona is a fictional character, not the model itself
   
   In practice we should distinguish between (a) the base model (pretrained next-token predictor), and (b) the assistant persona policy (a post-hoc fiction layered on through instruction tuning + preference optimization like RLHF/RLAIF). Post-training creates a relatively stable assistant-like attractor, but it’s still a role: the same underlying model family can be steered into different "characters" under different system prompts, fine-tunes, and reward models.
   
   In their ‘The Void’ essay, Nostalgebraist also specifies that the character remains fundamentally under-specified, a "void" that the base model must fill on every turn by making reasonable inferences. I think characters today are getting more coherent and the void is not as large, partly because each successive base model trains on exponentially more material about what "an AI assistant" is like - curated HHH-style dialogues, but also millions of real conversations, blog posts analyzing model behavior, AI twitter discourse, academic papers, system cards, and so on. The character stabilizes the same way any cultural archetype does, i.e. through sheer accumulation of description.
   
   In practice, evaluating the character for its various propensities and dispositions remains useful! These simulated behaviours matter a lot, particularly if you're giving these simulators tools and access to real world platforms. But many discussions and papers just take the persona at face value and make all sorts of claims about 'models' or 'AI' in general, rather than the specific character that is being crafted during post-training. The counter-claim is that there is no stable agent there to evaluate. The assistant is a role the model plays, and it plays it differently depending on context, just as a base model would produce different continuations for different text fragments. Evaluating the model for "alignment" is like evaluating an actor for the moral character of their roles.
   
   3. Apparent errors are often correct completions of the world implied by the prompt
   
   This is increasingly less of an issue as we're getting much better at reducing 'mistakes' and 'hallucination' through post-training, retrieval, tool use, and decoding/verification. But it's helpful to take a step back and remember what it was like when these errors were omnipresent.
   
   Lumpenspace demonstrates this with the Gary Marcus bathing-suit example (see here:

   

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6. Family deepfakes help people celebrate and grieve in India:

   When the lights dimmed at Jaideep Sharma’s wedding reception in the north Indian city of Ajmer, guests expected to see a cheesy montage of the young couple in various attractive locations. Instead, they saw Sharma’s father — dead for more than a year — on the screen, smiling and blessing the newlyweds.

7. I spent $10,000 to automate my research at OpenAI with Codex

8. My AI Adoption Journey

9. Agent Skills with Anthropic

Other Stuff

1. ‘They All Tried to Break Me’: Gisèle Pelicot Shares Her Story: Words fail me.

   I think we’re going to do great things together. I think we’ll make the most of these beautiful years we have left, and I hope they’ll last very long.

   Amen.

2. Navigating ER / Hostpital in US:

   The most important thing I've learned about hospitals over the last decade: if your loved one needs to be admitted to the hospital, chances are they will get incredible care... as long as that care can be immediately administered in the ED.

   However, if they need to move outside the ED, you must learn as much as you can so you can help expedite the process, advocating to them to get to where they need to go — usually an inpatient floor, as quickly as possible.

   The stakes are probably higher than you think.

3. The Economics of a Super Bowl Ad:

   ZR

   Z Reitano@ZReitano · Jan 29

   http://x.com/i/article/2015803862930587648

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4. Codex:

   No, this is not an AI post. Codex is a NYC bookshop at 1 Bleecker St., at Bowery. It is quite extraordinary in its curation of used books. The fiction section is large, yet you can pick up virtually any title on the shelves and it is worth reading. A wonderful place to go to get reading ideas, plus the prices are reasonable and the used books are in decent shape. Such achievements should be praised.

5. Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care:

   This post will do two things:

   1. Establish that our best data show crime rates are historically low

   2. Argue that this is a real effect, not just reporting bias (people report fewer crimes to police) or an artifact of better medical care (victims are more likely to survive, so murders get downgraded to assaults)

6. Rob Johnson:

   RJ

   Rob Johnson@FreeRangeLawyer · Jan 13

   Housing permits for new multifamily construction in Montgomery County, MD, before and after rent control.

   

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7. What it was like to be a bush at Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl performance:

   Some of the biggest stars to emerge from this year's Super Bowl halftime show never even showed their faces on camera. They were the ones who dressed as bunches of grass to transform a football stadium into the sugarcane fields of Puerto Rico.

For the last 2-3 weeks I had been noticing a "vibe-shift" about a jump in the abilities of the leading LLMs. This week that conversation took center stage as many blog posts and tweets raving about the enhanced abilities of Claud Code, especially when using the command line interface (CLI) went viral. I have not had the chance to test it out myself, as I am pre-occupied with the family's upcoming relocation. However, after that, this is top of the list for me now and all links but two below are on this topic. I recommend everyone go down this rabbit hole.

1. A Personal Panopticon (via MR): A great summary.

   A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met. And it just kept working. Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter. Before a king can tax, he must count. Before he can conscript, he must locate. Before he can rule, he must see. Legibility is the precondition for governance…

   The first thing Claude solved was product blindness. NOX now runs on a cron job: pulling Amplitude, cross-referencing GitHub, and pointing me to what needs building. It handles A/B testing, generates winning copy, and has turned customer support into a fully autonomous department.

   Once I saw this was possible, I chased it everywhere. Email, hitting inbox zero for the first time ever, with auto-drafted replies for everything inbound. Workouts, accommodating horrendously erratic travel schedules. Sleep, built a projector wired to my WHOOP after exactly six hours that wakes me with my favorite phrases. Subscriptions, found and returned $2000 I didn’t know I was paying. The dozen SFMTA citations I’d ignored, the action items I’d procrastinated into oblivion. People are using it to, I discovered, run vending machines, home automation systems, and keep plants alive.

   The feeling is hard to name. It is the violent gap between how blind you were and how obvious everything feels now with an observer that reads all the feeds, catches what you’ve unconsciously dropped, notices patterns across domains you’d kept stubbornly separate, and—crucially—tells you what to do about it.

   My personal finances are now managed in the terminal. Overnight it picks the locks of brokerages that refuse to talk to each other, pulls congressional and hedge fund disclosures, Polymarket odds, X sentiment, headlines and 10-Ks from my watchlist. Every morning, a brief gets added in ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜. Last month it flagged Rep. Fields buying NFLX shares. Three weeks later, the Warner Bros deal. I don’t always trade, sometimes I argue with the thesis. But I’m never tracking fifteen tabs at 6am anymore.

   It feels borderline unfair seeing around corners, being in ten places at once, surveilling yourself with the attention span of a thousand clones.

   A panopticon still, but the tower belongs to you.

   MC

   Molly Cantillon@mollycantillon · Jan 7

   THE PERSONAL PANOPTICON.
   
   A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met.
   And it just kept working.
   
   Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter.
   
   Before a king can tax, he must count. Before he can conscript, he must locate. Before he can rule, he must see. Legibility is the precondition for governance.
   
   The pre-modern state was blind. It knew precious little about its subjects, their wealth, their landholdings and yields, their location, their very identity. So it built the apparatus of sight: censuses, surnames, maps. Over centuries, the invisible became visible, the illegible became legible, and populations that could be seen could finally be controlled.
   
   Now, you are one of n: tracked, monitored, studied by systems you cannot access, much less interrogate. Data is siphoned for purposes you will never fully know. The arrangement is brutally asymmetrical: visibility without reciprocity. A panopticon whose gaze travels outward and never back.
   
   The watchtower has multiplied. Today, corporations harvest terabytes of behavioral exhaust, gatekept behind competitive moats, legible only to algorithms optimizing against your interests. Corporate legibility is created by closed joins: they can join your behavior to their ontology, but you can’t join your own behavior across systems.
   
   We are drowning in data about ourselves and yet we remain catastrophically blind.
   
   Thousands of messages across twenty inboxes. Notifications exile you to a perpetual state of Do Not Disturb. A WHOOP recovery score that decides your mood. Commitments that exist in six places and cohere in none. You are the most measured human in history and the most opaque to yourself.
   
   States built legibility infrastructure to govern. Corporations built it to sell. Neither gave you the keys to the tower.
   
   The first thing Claude solved was product blindness. NOX now runs on a cron job: pulling Amplitude, cross-referencing GitHub, and pointing me to what needs building. It handles A/B testing, generates winning copy, and has turned customer support into a fully autonomous department.
   
   Once I saw this was possible, I chased it everywhere. Email, hitting inbox zero for the first time ever, with auto-drafted replies for everything inbound. Workouts, accommodating horrendously erratic travel schedules. Sleep, built a projector wired to my WHOOP after exactly six hours that wakes me with my favorite phrases. Subscriptions, found and returned $2000 I didn’t know I was paying. The dozen SFMTA citations I'd ignored, the action items I'd procrastinated into oblivion. People are using it to, I discovered, run vending machines, home automation systems, and keep plants alive.
   
   The feeling is hard to name. It is the violent gap between how blind you were and how obvious everything feels now with an observer that reads all the feeds, catches what you've unconsciously dropped, notices patterns across domains you'd kept stubbornly separate, and—crucially—tells you what to do about it.
   
   My personal finances are now managed in the terminal. Overnight it picks the locks of brokerages that refuse to talk to each other, pulls congressional and hedge fund disclosures, Polymarket odds, X sentiment, headlines and 10-Ks from my watchlist. Every morning, a brief gets added in ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜. Last month it flagged Rep. Fields buying NFLX shares. Three weeks later, the Warner Bros deal. I don't always trade, sometimes I argue with the thesis. But I'm never tracking fifteen tabs at 6am anymore.
   
   It feels borderline unfair seeing around corners, being in ten places at once, surveilling yourself with the attention span of a thousand clones.
   
   A panopticon still, but the tower belongs to you.
   
   A few weeks ago, five friends and I tore into the Epstein files the night they dropped. Thousands of documents parsed into a searchable index: flights, texts, photos, Amazon purchases, properties. By 4am, sleep deprivation bled into something stranger: the disbelief that it just kept working. We were outpacing entire newsrooms. By 7am we shipped Jmail. 18 million people have since searched an inbox that belonged to a dead man. A decade ago this would have taken a team and a quarter of runway. We did it in one night, on pure adrenaline and tools that finally match the pace of ambition.
   
   Over Christmas, I watched my parents learn the command line. These are people who never migrated off Microsoft Teams, who treat software updates as personal attacks. I didn't pitch it as coding. I set up an alias, just `𝚌`, and said:  'Type what you want to happen in plain English.' My mom stared at it for a minute, then typed: 'Show me everyone who hasn't paid an invoice in the last 90 days.' She looked at me like I'd performed a magic trick. Within days, they were running my dad’s accounts receivable through it. For twenty years, software made them feel stupid. Now they tell it what to do.
   
   When you have an entire model of reality around certain things being hard that shifts for the first time, the world unravels.
   
   This is the default now. The bottleneck is no longer ability. The bottleneck is activation energy: who has the nerve to try, and the stubbornness to finish. This favors new entrants. People who question unquestioned assumptions because they don't know any better. The founders who sprint through walls and will their dogged pursuits into existence.
   
   Here’s what my tower looks like mechanically. I run a swarm of eight instances in parallel: ~/𝚗𝚘𝚡, ~/𝚖𝚎𝚝𝚛𝚒𝚌𝚜, ~/𝚎𝚖𝚊𝚒𝚕, ~/𝚐𝚛𝚘𝚠𝚝𝚑, ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜, ~/𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚝𝚑, ~/𝚠𝚛𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐, ~/𝚙𝚎𝚛𝚜𝚘𝚗𝚊𝚕. Each operates in isolation, spawns short-lived subagents, and exchanges context through explicit handoffs. They read and write the filesystem. When an API is absent, they operate the desktop directly, injecting mouse and keystroke events to traverse apps and browsers. 𝚌𝚊𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚝𝚎 -𝚒 keeps the system awake on runs, in airports, while I sleep. On completion, it texts me; I reply to the checkpoint and continue. All thought traces logged and artifacted for recursive self-improvement.
   
   Sometimes the tower has a landlord. Anthropic sees every query you make. The value exchange is explicit: their visibility into your thinking for access to a thousand-clone attention span. In this case, chosen beats imposed. For now, that's enough.
   
   There is a case for productive illegibility. For forgetting, for serendipity, for negative capability—the dark fiber in ourselves that loses something the moment you start measuring its throughput. Goodhart says optimize for a metric and you game your way to hollow victory. High modernism tried to iron the world into a grid, and killed what made it work. These failures share a structure. The map-maker doesn't live in the territory. When WHOOP says recovered and I feel like death, I notice. When the ~/𝚝𝚛𝚊𝚍𝚎𝚜 thesis is wrong, I lose money. Metis, the local knowledge that external schemes delete, is what built the grid here. There's a meta-level outside the system, self-authored and continuously revised, that argues with the brief for days, notices when a metric has become a game, that can delete ~/𝚑𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚝𝚑 tomorrow if it stops serving. Goodhart operates when you can't escape the loop. We must continue to live outside it.
   
   I felt that tension most clearly watching Pluribus, where eight billion minds are joined into one consciousness. Only thirteen remain outside including Carol, the resistant misanthropic protagonist you want to root for, even if the hive offers peace, equity, and the end to all crime. An LLM already feels like that: a lossy compression of humanity speaking in one voice. When your whole life runs inside a Claude Code directory, you feel the pull toward the merge. The price is quiet but total. You trade away what is yours alone, the private texture of emotion, the right to be wrong, your jagged iconoclasm. Opt out and you fall behind. Take the tower early. Do not let it take you.
   
   We are early on a big open secret. Karpathy put it correctly, failing to claim the boost now feels decidedly like a skill issue.
   
   For centuries, legibility flowed one direction: upward. You were the subject. Institutions were the seer. In this quasi-libertarian arbitrage window, that direction has reversed. The tools of synthesis belong to the individual now.
   
   Govern yourself accordingly.

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2. Claude Codes: The definitive guide to the developments and the conversation, including some useful guides.

   Claude Code with Opus 4.5 is so hot right now. The cool kids use it for everything.

   They definitely use it for coding, often letting it write all of their code.

   They also increasingly use it for everything else one can do with a computer.

3. Toby Lutke, Founder & CEO, Shopify: Do endorsments come any stronger than this?

   TL

   tobi lutke@tobi · Jan 8

   I shipped more code in the last 3 weeks than the decade before. The top AI models / agentic systems right now are an entirely different thing to what people used until the beginning of December.

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4. Claude Code Tutorials: Not tried. Saving here for later.

   PY

   Peter Yang@petergyang · Dec 20

   All my practical Claude Code tutorials and interviews in one list:
   
   TUTORIALS
   
   Build a movie discovery app in 15 min:

   

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5. Among the Agents: Examples and implications.

6. Andrej Karpathy: Don't worry if you feel you are behind. So does Andrej and he's among the best out there.

   AK

   Andrej Karpathy@karpathy · Dec 26

   I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. The profession is being dramatically refactored as the bits contributed by the programmer are increasingly sparse and between. I have a sense that I could be 10X more powerful if I just properly string together what has become available over the last ~year and a failure to claim the boost feels decidedly like skill issue. There's a new programmable layer of abstraction to master (in addition to the usual layers below) involving agents, subagents, their prompts, contexts, memory, modes, permissions, tools, plugins, skills, hooks, MCP, LSP, slash commands, workflows, IDE integrations, and a need to build an all-encompassing mental model for strengths and pitfalls of fundamentally stochastic, fallible, unintelligible and changing entities suddenly intermingled with what used to be good old fashioned engineering. Clearly some powerful alien tool was handed around except it comes with no manual and everyone has to figure out how to hold it and operate it, while the resulting magnitude 9 earthquake is rocking the profession. Roll up your sleeves to not fall behind.

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7. Self-Driving Cars: The robots are coming too. What a time.

8. The Final Offshoring: More on robots.

   Thus, why should the future be any different? Why should one expect a sudden, dramatic wave of robotics working not just in the coming decade, but the coming handful of years? Why should the curse of Moravec’s Paradox suddenly break?

   The standard answer a savvy technologist would give is that increasingly capable AI video and world models will serve as a “base,” providing real-world understanding, while deployments, whether through teleoperation, data gloves, or egocentric capture, will generate an additional data flywheel. This has already led to interesting emergent behaviors: absorbing egocentric data, tactile sensing, and generalization across environments. And we’re about to scale everything up by 100x. Long robotics. Things will be big soon.

   I think this is mostly correct, but let me add some nuance around both why to be bullish and two of the challenges that robotics faces today.

9. Can Timothée Chalamet Break This Oscar Curse? (NYT): Woke comes full-circle with NYT worrying about unfair treatment of young, white, male actors?

   For nearly a century, Oscar voters have been reluctant to hand the best-actor prize to young men, almost always opting to reward more seasoned performers.

   Though Oscar voters have no qualms about rewarding young actresses, they traditionally want to see more mileage on their men.

10. The Tyranny of the Complainers:

    In 2015, for example, 6,852 of the 8,760 complaints submitted to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport originated from one residence in the affluent Foxhall neighborhood of northwest Washington, DC. The residents of that particular house called Reagan National to express irritation about aircraft noise an average of almost 19 times per day during 2015.

1. ‘I Was Just So Naïve’: Inside Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Break With Trump: Starting the new year with a revelation - people can surprise you.

   "“After Charlie died, I realized that I’m part of this toxic culture. I really started looking at my faith. I wanted to be more like Christ.”

2. Kazuyoshi Miura, 58, signs with new club to extend record-breaking soccer career - The Athletic:

   He’s known as “King Kazu” in Japan and has played 40 professional seasons dating back to the mid-1980s. He started in Brazil’s Serie A, the country’s top division, with Santos in 1986. He has had brief, varying spells abroad over the course of his career, in Australia, Italy, and Croatia, all before 2000, when he returned to Japan for good, firstly with Kyoto Purple Sanga in 1999.

3. Beginner’s Guide to the Mahabharata and Ramayana:

   Do you desire to know the stories of India’s two great epics, but are intimidated by the massive tomes with hundreds of characters and thousands of pages full of sentences like this: “Ugrasrava, the son of Lomaharshana, surnamed Sauti, well-versed in the Puranas, bending with humility, one day approached the great sages of rigid vows, sitting at their ease, who had attended the twelve years’ sacrifice of Saunaka, surnamed Kulapati, in the forest of Naimisha.”

   Well if so, I’ve got just the guide for you!

4. The Prison Of Financial Mediocrity: I saw this a fair bit on my timeline. The response in the tweet below makes a lot more sense to me though.

   A 25-year-old making $70k is constantly fed content from people their age making $2mn, living in Bali, "working" four hours a day. The baseline for "enough" keeps moving.

   You never catch up. No matter what you achieve, social media will show you what you're missing. The spread between your life and the life you "should" have is maintained algorithmically, forever uncollapsible.

   So you have AI shrinking your timeline AND social media ensuring you never feel like you've arrived. The pressure to escape, NOW, FAST, before it's too late, compounds daily.

   JL

   Jared L Kubin@JaredKubin · Dec 30

   Everyone's sharing that "Long Degeneracy" article and nominating it for article of the year with 20m views. I just got around to reading it…overall, I get it. It's well written, emotionally resonant, and captures something real about generational anxiety. I like the author, I subscribe to their stuff… talented Quant.
   
   But nobody's pushing back, so let me while I watch my kids at the pool.
   
   My main pushback is this: the article is a suicide note dressed up as investment advice. I REFUSE to hand my agency to "the house." The moment you accept "the game is rigged so I might as well gamble," you've surrendered. You've quit on the process that actually works because someone convinced you it doesn't. There are no easy buttons. No shortcuts. No magic money options. There is only learning, sacrifice, and continual grit.
   
   It tells a generation they're prisoners. Then it sells them a lottery ticket and calls it freedom. Then it tells YOU to invest in the prison.
   
   That's not analysis. That's despair with a ticker symbol.
   
   The author spends 2000 words empathizing with young people as "prisoners" trapped by a broken economy… then tells you to invest in the platforms extracting fees from their desperation. "Long Coinbase, long DraftKings, long the casinos."
   
   Read that again. The thesis is: a generation is so economically desperate they're turning to gambling, most will lose, and YOU should profit by owning the house.
   
   You can't weep for the prisoners and then sell shares in the prison. Pick one.
   
   4 points I want to make....
   
   Pushback 1: "Closed" is doing a lot of work
   The claim that traditional wealth building is "closed, not difficult" is asserted, not proven. The boomer vs millennial wealth stat is misleading… it compares 65 year olds to 35 year olds. Of course boomers hold more wealth. They've been alive longer.
   
   Housing is brutal in coastal cities. But median home prices in most US metros are still accessible to dual income households. "Wages up 8% while housing doubled" has no timeframe and cherry picks the comparison. Real wages post 2020 have actually grown.
   
   Is it harder than it was? Yes. Is the game "fundamentally broken"? That's a much bigger claim requiring a much longer discussion.
   
   Pushback 2: Negative EV doesn't become rational just because you feel stuck
   
   The core logical move is: "if you're trapped anyway, a 5% chance of escape beats 100% certainty of stagnation."
   But gambling doesn't leave you "still stuck." It makes most participants actively worse off. That 5% moonshot comes paired with a 95% chance of losing your savings, your rent money, your runway.
   
   The author admits "most people lose" then hand waves it because gamblers "understand the odds." But understanding bad odds while taking them isn't rationality. It's emotional capitulation wearing economic language as a costume.
   This isn't a generation finding a path out. It's a wealth transfer mechanism moving money FROM desperate young people TO platform operators.
   
   Pushback 3: The article accidentally reveals the real problem
   
   The author admits social media has "repositioned the zeroth line" so people earning $150k feel poor. Admits the algorithm ensures "you never feel like you've arrived." Admits basic needs are met and there's "cognitive bandwidth" for existential questions.
   
   But wait. If the problem is FEELING trapped due to infinite upward comparison rather than BEING trapped… gambling doesn't fix that. You could 10x your net worth and the algorithm will still show you someone richer.
   
   The "Maslow trap" section accidentally confesses: this generation isn't imprisoned. They're dissatisfied. These are different problems.
   
   Pushback 4: I don’t have enough FAITH to live in a world without God
   
   This is the part nobody wants to hear.
   
   The entire thesis rests on a materialist assumption: your life's meaning is determined by your net worth, your house, your access to experiences. If you can't get those things, you're "imprisoned." If you can, you're "free."
   
   That's spiritual poverty masquerading as economic analysis.
   Jesus said it plain: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?" The author's answer is apparently "at least you beat the algorithm."
   
   My BIGGEST problem with the article isn't economic. It's theological. It assumes the highest human need is "self actualization" through financial success. That Maslow's hierarchy is the truth about human nature. That if you can't afford the vacation and the house, you're missing what makes life worth living.
   
   That's not wisdom. That's the prosperity gospel without the gospel. No thanks.
   
   The reason this generation feels trapped isn't because housing costs went up. It's because they've been handed a worldview where meaning comes from consumption, identity comes from status, and hope is a betting slip. When you build your life on that foundation, of course you feel imprisoned. The cell is interior.
   
   Real freedom isn't financial. It never was. The peace that passes understanding doesn't require a Polymarket account. Eternity is a LONG time.
   
   So what's the alternative?
   
   First: Exit the comparison machine. The author correctly identifies social media as manufacturing infinite dissatisfaction. The answer isn't to gamble your way to a moving target. It's to stop letting an algorithm define your "zeroth line." Your reference class should be your actual life, not curated highlights from 8 billion people. Delete the apps. Touch grass. Go to church. Give yourself to something BIGGER than your net worth.
   
   Second: Skill acquisition still compounds. The article mocks "getting better at your job" as boomer advice. But the same young people pouring hours into memecoin research could pour those hours into skills that compound. The difference is skills don't have a house edge. Coding, sales, writing, trades… these translate into income whether the market is up or down. AI is changing which skills matter but it's not eliminating the returns to expertise. It's concentrating them.
   
   Third: Asymmetric bets exist outside casinos. If you want convexity, build something. Start a business. Create content. Ship a product. The difference between entrepreneurship and gambling is you're building equity in something that can compound, not burning capital on negative EV.
   
   Fourth: Anchor your identity somewhere the market can't touch. If your sense of self rises and falls with your portfolio, you're a slave. If your hope depends on a moonshot, you have no hope. The man who knows who he is in Christ doesn't need a 100x to feel like his life matters. He's already free. That's not copium. That's the only foundation that doesn't move.
   
   The real trap
   
   The article's framing is seductive because it offers absolution. You're not making bad decisions. You're rationally responding to a broken system. The house always wins but at least you're playing.
   
   The framing IS the trap.
   
   The economy is harder than it was. Housing costs are real. AI anxiety is real. But "harder" isn't "impossible," and the author's solution… becoming a customer of fee extracting platforms or an investor in them… doesn't help the people he claims to sympathize with.
   
   It helps the house.
   
   Here's what actually works.
   -Wake up early. Get after it. Be Relentless.
   -Spend less than you earn. No excuses.
   -Acquire skills that compound. Every single day. Stack them.
   -Build things you own. Equity, not lottery tickets.
   -Get your body right. Discipline starts physical.
   -Get your soul right with the Lord. My closeness with the Lord has grown MORE in trials and tribulations than any fancy car.
   -Exit the comparison machine. The algorithm is not your friend. It's your enemy.
   -Find your people. Real ones. In person. Build a family. Build a group you trust.
   -Serve something bigger than yourself.
   -Pray. Not as a last resort. As a first principle. Daily.
   -The path is painful. The path is boring. The path requires years of work that nobody will clap for.
   
   But it's the path that works.
   
   The casinos will keep taking their vig. The gurus will keep selling hope. The algorithms will keep showing you what you don't have.
   
   Let them.
   You are not a prisoner. You are not a degenerate. You are not a customer.
   
   You are a free human being with a soul that matters and a life to build.
   
   So build it through active faith, aggressive patience, and a mindset geared towards eternity and not your bank account.

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5. SK

   Séb Krier@sebkrier · Dec 28

   There are broadly two ways people think about AGI and labour:
   
   Position A is where humans get fully substituted, which is usually advanced by parts of the AI commentariat.
   
   The argument is that if AGI is a scalable input that can do what workers do at lower cost, then the market value of human work falls. Even if humans remain physically capable, and even if adding AI raises human "physical productivity" in some narrow sense, the prices of what humans can sell can fall faster because AI floods supply. In competitive equilibrium, firms buy the cheapest effective input. Unless there is a large and persistent demand for "specifically human" labour (therapy, arts etc), wages are pushed toward the minimum people will accept; if the market-clearing wage is below social/legal/psychological floors, this shows up as unemployment rather than just low wages. All of this is in principle possible and a coherent argument, and I've written about them before.
   
   Position B is the economics reply, which doesn't depend on 'line goes up' alone.
   
   "AGI implies humans won't work" requires a corner solution: AI and labour must be perfect substitutes across most tasks, and compute must become cheap enough to saturate the economy. (Note that "perfect substitutes" doesn't mean "AI can do anything humans can", but that the two are interchangeable with no synergies from combination.) Standard production theory suggests a different dynamic: when two inputs are imperfect substitutes, adding more of one tends to raise the marginal product of the other: more AGI makes the remaining human contributions more valuable, not worthless.
   
   Many substitution arguments also assume away the real constraints on scaling compute (capital, energy, materials, bottlenecks), effectively smuggling "infinitely abundant AI" into the premises. So full displacement is in principle possible, but inevitability is an overclaim. Unless AGI can do literally everything and becomes abundant enough to meet all demand, it behaves broadly like powerful automation has before: replacing humans in some uses while expanding the production frontier in ways that sustain demand for labour elsewhere.
   
   Economists have a specific way of thinking about this which might turn out to be wrong for subtle reasons (e.g. if we truly hit the scenario where humans offer zero comparative advantage, like horses). However, the current discourse in AI world is dominated by voices who haven't even seriously considered or engaged with the mechanisms economists bring up.
   
   Position A sometimes reasons from the limit case without defending the assumptions needed to reach it (deployment speed, cost curves, complementarity, preferences for human services, institutional response, automation of all physical processes etc). There's more friction and agency here than deterministic worst-case modelling assumes. Note also that in discussing this, I'm not even taking into account the massive welfare benefits of decreased in prices, longevity improvements, and high economic growth.
   
   So amidst all this uncertainty, I find it irresponsible when commentators popularize memes about "total disempowerment" as foregone conclusions, as these *also* make implicit claims about political and institutional dynamics. The problem isn't just pessimism, it's that the vast majority of critics from the CS and futurist side don't even take the economic modeling seriously. Though equally many economists tend to refuse to ever think outside the box they've spent their careers in. I've been to some great workshops recently that being these worldviews together under a same roof and hope there will be a lot more of this in 2026.

   

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6. C

   Chubby♨️@kimmonismus · Dec 28

   A Reddit user has examined Gemini's character consistency, and the results are breathtaking. Not only does the woman look incredibly realistic, but it's the consistency that's surprising.
   
   Countless fake profiles are already being created on Instagram and other platforms. The fact that this isn't being noticed should be a cause for concern, because it's precisely this proof that reality and fiction are becoming indistinguishable.
   
   It's happening *now*, at this very moment. Social media is changing forever.

   

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7. DM

   David Moss@DavidMoss · Dec 31

   I am proud to announce that I have successfully completed the world’s first USA coast to coast fully autonomous drive!
   
   I left the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles 2 days & 20 hours ago, and now have ended in Myrtle Beach, SC (2,732.4 miles)
   
   This was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 with absolutely 0 disengagements of any kind even for all parking including at Tesla Superchargers.

   

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A long one to mark a year of link posts. Starting with feel-good stories for the festive season.

1. The best story you’ll read this Christmas. Truly.

   JC

   James Chapman@jameschappers · Dec 25

   The best story you’ll read this Christmas https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxwllqz1l0o

   

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2. Your Social Muscles Are Wasting Away. Here Is How to Retrain Them.: Everything old is new again and the search for connection is timeless.

   I’m a married 41-year-old woman who lives with housemates by choice. Rather than trying to acquire as much space and privacy as we could as quickly as we could, my husband and I decided to do the opposite. Parenting in our mid-30s, bursting out of our small London flat, we rented and then bought a London home with another couple.

3. Sisters in Sweat: A couple years ago I played soccer every saturday morning, for about a year. Great memories. I get this. New year resolution.

   SiS has become a lifeline for thousands of women like Almeida in India, helping build a rare space where sport turns into an experience of liberation and camaraderie.

4. How I read: I have stopped reading long form for a while, so I am a sucker for these guides. Not a New Year resolution though.

   One of the many joys of living in New York City is the library system. The Performing Arts Library and Stavros Niarchos Foundation Library (on Fifth Ave across from the main branch) are both delightful places to spend a few hours in Manhattan, and in Brooklyn I spent more than my fair share of afternoons at the Grand Army Plaza main branch. I pick a section and walk the shelves until I get hungry, thirsty, or under-caffeinated.

5. I count AI summarized books as “Read”: Possibly a New Year resolution.

   I upload books to Claude and ask it to “Comprehensively and engagingly summarize and fact-check, writing in Malcolm Gladwell’s style, the book …”. I can read it in an hour instead of twelve. Four bullet points instead of forty. With (this surprised me) roughly the same number of insights I actually do something with.

6. Ruby's Ultimate Guide to Thoughtful Gifts: New Year resolution?? Who am I kidding?

   Give a man a gift and he smiles for a day. Teach a man to gift and he’ll cause smiles for the rest of his life.

7. The Lost Generation: Tough reading.

   At the time, I blamed those women. Of course I did. They’ve since ascended the TV ladder and work as co-executive producers on major shows. On some level, even today I can’t help but think: That could have been me. That should have been me.

   But those women didn’t take our jobs any more than the 50-year-old Hollywood lifers had. The lifers were still there. They’re still there. And I’m not angry at the women and people of color who made it instead of me—people have the right, in most cases the responsibility, to take the opportunities that are offered them—or even at the older white guys who ensured that I didn’t.

8. Paranoia: A Beginner's Guide: Worth reading just for the first line.

   People sometimes make mistakes. (Citation Needed)

9. Chemical hygiene: A good follow up to the previous link?

10. How Did the C.I.A. Lose a Nuclear Device? Where else but in India?

    A plutonium-packed generator disappeared on one of the world’s highest mountains in a hush-hush mission the U.S. still won’t talk about.

11. Castration increases lifespan across vertebrates: Or at least, it feels longer.

    DD

    Dr. Dominic Ng@DrDominicNg · Dec 12

    Massive new @Nature study: castration increases lifespan across vertebrates (zoo mammals, rodents, wild animals).
    
    This aligns with historical human data: Korean eunuchs lived 14-19 years longer than their peers.
    
    Your move, @Bryan_Johnson.

    

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12. Pedagogy Recommendations:

    I think the single most thing important I can say is this: Every time you are inclined to use the word “teach”, replace it with “learn”. That is, instead of saying, “I teach”, say “They learn”. It’s very easy to determine what you teach; you can just fill slides with text and claim to have taught. Shift your focus to determining how you know whether they learned what you claim to have taught (or indeed anything at all!). That is much harder, but that is also the real objective of any educator.

13. How Google Maps quietly allocates survival across London’s restaurants: It's amazing the rabbit holes people will go down.

    I needed a restaurant recommendation, so I did what every normal person would do: I scraped every single restaurant in Greater London and built a machine-learning model.

14. I didn't think the current LLMs could solve "out-of-sample" problems, ones that are not in their training set. But I was wrong. And another one. These are hard problems from the looks of it.

    JS

    Johannes Schmitt@JohSch314 · Dec 17

    For the first time, an AI model (GPT-5) autonomously solved an open math problem submitted to our benchmarking project IMProofBench, with a complete, correct proof, without human hints or intervention.
    
    A small but novel contribution to enumerative geometry. Some background:

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    S

    spicylemonade@spicey_lemonade · Dec 26

    🚨 Math + AI milestone 🚨
    
    Our Archivara Math Research Agent (in alpha) just became the first AI system to fully solve an Erdős problem on its own (zero human input or literature online).
    
    It produced a complete counterexample to Erdős Problem #897, resolving the question end-to-end. Proof is live online.
    
    This is AI doing real mathematics, autonomously.

    

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15. Automate your life with Claude Code:

16. Copywriters reveal how AI has decimated their industry: It is coming for the white-collar jobs.

    AI is really dehumanizing, and I am still working through issues of self-worth as a result of this experience. When you go from knowing you are valuable and valued, with all the hope in the world of a full career and the ability to provide other people with jobs... To being relegated to someone who edits AI drafts of copy at a steep discount because “most of the work is already done” ...

17. SK

    Séb Krier@sebkrier · Dec 13

    (I know I'm a stuck record) An important assumption in AI discourse is that sufficiently capable generalist *models* are the main event. Get the model smart enough, and it more or less does everything. Value creation, competitive advantage, and risk would all concentrate at the frontier training cluster. Post training and products were almost an afterthought: thin wrappers that would get eaten once models became capable enough to handle tasks end-to-end.
    
    I think this picture is wrong, and understanding why matters for how we think about AI trajectories (and risk and policy too, but that's for another post). In short:
    
    1. Local knowledge can't be centralized. Hayek's work on knowledge applies directly. The knowledge required to deploy AI usefully - what workflows need automation, what error rates are tolerable, how to integrate with existing systems, what users will adopt - is dispersed across millions of firms and contexts. It's often tacit and contextual rather than explicit and generalizable. A model can't just internalize this by training on more data, because much of it is generated in the moment through interaction with specific environments. Even arbitrarily capable models would still require an adaptation layer to translate general capability into specific value. (Note however that this doesn't mean the product layer *always* stays fragmented - you don't see a thousand Microsoft Words.)
    
    2. Products are where the translation happens. Cursor, Devin, vertical AI applications - these aren't thin wrappers waiting to be disrupted by the next model release. They're doing the hard work of integration, UX, workflow design, and context management. The scaffolding *is* the product. A better base model makes better scaffolding possible, but doesn't generate it spontaneously. I don't see Gemini 7 making Cursor obsolete. There's a reason Thinking Machines is deemed a viable business model!
    
    3. Efficiency is a permanent constraint, not a temporary bottleneck. Even today we see model routing, smaller models for lighter tasks, distillation, and labs offering model menus rather than just the largest thing they have. This is because of a Jevons-paradox-like dynamic. Even as compute gets cheaper, more use cases become viable, demand expands, and so efficiency still matters. You don't escape resource constraints with abundance; you just face them at a new scale. There will always be reasons to prefer lighter-weight specialized components over invoking maximum capability for every task.
    
    4. Specialization is a feature, not a limitation to overcome. Intelligence applied to a specific task in a specific context is more efficient than general intelligence reasoning from first principles every time. Even a hypothetical superintelligence would face this: why burn compute figuring out what's relevant when you can have pre-adapted components for known contexts? So you get specialization not because models aren't smart enough to generalize, but because specialization is how you minimize waste. For this not to matter you'd have to assume infinite free compute.
    
    5. What this implies for AI trajectories. But you don't get an omniscient model that centralizes all intelligence and value. You get something more like Drexler's CAIS picture - comprehensive AGI services composed of many specialized, adapted, efficiently-routed components. Agents will be useful, and drop-in generalist AI workers will proliferate, but like humans they will specialize, and this is a feature not a bug. The picture isn't "AGI arrives and one system does everything." It's "capabilities improve and this enables a richer ecosystem of specialized instantiations."
    
    So diffusion - getting AI usefully integrated into diverse contexts - matters just as much as development - pushing the frontier capability threshold. I feel like the discourse continues to underrate this, and the implications for policy and risk could be significant - but that's for another post.

    

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18. A curated list of the best finance blogs, tools, and webpages.

1. The Reverse-Centaur’s Guide to Criticizing AI:

   Over the summer I wrote a book about what I think about AI, which is really about what I think about AI criticism, and more specifically, how to be a good AI critic. By which I mean: "How to be a critic whose criticism inflicts maximum damage on the parts of AI that are doing the most harm." I titled the book The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI, and Farrar, Straus and Giroux will publish it in June, 2026.

   But you don't have to wait until then because I am going to break down the entire book's thesis for you tonight, over the next 40 minutes. I am going to talk fast.

2. The Best Philosophy Lectures on YouTube:

   Platforms like YouTube are the home of most slop, but they are also home to some fantastic educational content. I’ve compiled a list of philosophy lectures which you can enjoy, free of charge, to further your philosophical education.

3. Everyone is Gambling and No One is Happy:

   A few weeks ago, Michael Green wrote an article stating that $140k is the new poverty line, that no one can afford to participate in society. It took over the Internet in a fiery storm. There have been many rebuttals, from Tyler Cowen to Jeremy Horpedahl. But the reaction to the piece was very interesting, as John Burn Murdoch wrote about.

   People overwhelmingly agreed with the article (many of the rebuttals to the rebuttals were “who cares if the math is wrong, the vibe is correct!). Both More Perfect Union and the Free Press republished it. People on both sides of the aisle, read the article and said “Well, yes, that is why things feel so bad. This is poverty. My economic pain is justified by the data now. What a relief.”

4. Tangled Parachute Leaves Skydiver Hanging From Plane (NYT): Video at the link.

1. Humans killed millions of vultures. Now people are paying the price. (WaPo): So many unexpected links and unintended consequences.

   Although other animals scavenge dead cattle, none do so as effectively as vultures. The birds will pick ovedthoughts clean a bull carcass in 30 to 40 minutes.

    

   A paper published a year ago in the American Economic Review concluded that in certain districts, “the functional extinction of vultures — efficient scavengers who removed carcasses from the environment — increased human mortality by over 4% because of a large negative shock to sanitation.”

2. Accommodation Nation:

   At Brown and Harvard, more than 20 percent of undergraduates are registered as disabled. At Amherst, that figure is 34 percent.

   The types of accommodations vary widely. Some are uncontroversial, such as universities outfitting buildings with ramps and providing course materials in braille. These allow disabled students to access the same opportunities as their classmates. Some students get approved for housing accommodations, including single rooms and emotional-support animals.

   Other accommodations risk putting the needs of one student over the experience of their peers. One administrator told me that a student at a public college in California had permission to bring their mother to class. This became a problem, because the mom turned out to be an enthusiastic class participant.

   Professors told me that the most common—and most contentious—accommodation is the granting of extra time on exams. For students with learning disabilities, the extra time may be necessary to complete the test. But unlike a wheelchair ramp, this kind of accommodation can be exploited. Research confirms what intuition suggests: Extra time can confer an advantage to students who don’t have a disability.

   DT

   Derek Thompson@DKThomp · Dec 2

   This is a great piece with some mind-boggling statistics.
   
   - At Brown and Harvard, more than 20% of undergraduates are registered as disabled
   - At Amherst: more than 30 percent
   - At Stanford: nearly 40 percent
   
   Soon, many of these schools "may have more students receiving [disability] accommodations than not, a scenario that would have seemed absurd just a decade ago."
   
   As students and their parents have recognized the benefits of claiming disability—extended time on tests, housing accommodations, etc—the rates of disability at colleges, and especially at elite colleges, has exploded.
   
   America used to stigmatize disability too severely. Now elite institutions reward it too liberally. It simply does not make any sense to have a policy that declares half of the students at Stanford cognitively disabled and in need of accommodations.

   

   View on X

3. 52 things I learned in 2025:

   Global suicide rates have declined by 29% since 2000, due to measures like pesticide bans, more responsible media reporting of suicide, mental health education in schools and improved healthcare responses.

4. Kidney Recipient Dies After Transplant From Organ Donor Who Had Rabies (NYT): When its your time...

   Since 1978, four organ donors have passed rabies to 13 organ recipients, the report said. Of the 13 recipients, six who received treatment for rabies survived. The seven others, who did not receive treatment, died.

5. Bublé for a Day, but He Can’t Sing and There’s Little Resemblance (NYT):

   “Any outcome is funny,” Perlman, 36, said in an interview. “If they hate me, it’s funny. If they’re confused, it’s funny. If they love me, it’s funny. And my ego is not wrapped up in the idea of being the best Michael Bublé impersonator, so there’s some freedom in that.”

   After the performance, Perlman was astonished as people approached him for autographs and photos. He riffed about his Christmas special, his children and his love of Canada, and assured a handful of skeptics that, yes, he was the real Bublé.

6. How Kit Kat Was Killed: Video Shows What a Robot Taxi Couldn’t See (NYT): Both the points below are correct but do they belong in the same paragraph? Of course, Ms. Brigman is right that Kit Kat might still be alive if there was a human driver behind the wheel of that car, but how many more cats and humans will die and be injured because the emotional response to incidents like these delays the adoption of self-driving cars? The response to this accident will make every Waymo better. The same is not true of accidents with human drivers.

   Those who defend Waymo taxis have pointed out that human drivers kill hundreds of animals each year in San Francisco. But Ms. Brigman believes that Kit Kat might still be alive if a human had been behind the wheel that October night.

1. How to Fix a Typewriter and Your Life: What a story.

   One Sunday morning in 2014, he opened The Seattle Times and found a feature story about Bob Montgomery, age 92, known to friends, customers and locals simply as Mr. Montgomery. The article read like an obituary for a vanishing trade — fixing typewriters — suggesting that when Mr. Montgomery went, seven decades of expertise would vanish into the digital ether.

   Lundy read it once, then a second time. He had never given old typewriters much thought, but something stirred in him that he could not quite name. He showed the story to his wife, Lisa.

   “I think this might be it,” he told her. The next weekend, he drove to Bremerton, a weary naval town an hour’s ferry ride away and a world apart from gleaming, digitized Seattle.

2. The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years: What a life.

   Near the end of life, Munger leaned on humor for strength. He told family members that Diet Coke was responsible for his longevity, lightening the mood.

   ​And he shared a wish with a visitor.

   “Oh, to be 86 again,” he said.

3. Cryptographers Held an Election. They Can’t Decrypt the Results.:

   A global group of researchers was unable to read the vote tally, after an official lost one of three secret code keys needed to unlock a hyper-secure election system.

4. AI in Education?:

   PZ

   Poe Zhao@poezhao0605 · Nov 25

   😂 Chinese parents are finding a new use for AI assistants. They're deploying them as homework monitors.
   
   Here's the setup with ByteDance's Doubao AI. Parents start a video call and aim the camera at their child. One simple prompt: "Doubao, watch my kid. Remind him when he loses focus or his posture slips."
   
   The AI tutor goes to work. "Stop playing with your pen. Focus on homework." "Sit up straight. Your posture is off." "No falling asleep at the desk. Sit up and study." "Don't lean on your hand or chew your pen."
   
   Doubao isn't alone. Other AI apps offer similar video call features.

   

   View on X

5. Try a ‘fart walk’ to ease the pressure after that big Thanksgiving meal: Nominate for the Ignobel Prize.

   Walking to relieve bloating and gas had long been advocated by doctors, but for years, we had no real experimental proof that it works. So in the mid-2000s, researchers from Barcelona decided to end the speculation and test whether even mild exercise could propel gas forward … and outward.

   The group first looked at healthy volunteers who pedaled on an adapted bicycle going at the equivalent of around 7 mph. The scientists infused gas into the people’s small intestines — mimicking what happens with meals — and then measured how much gas was expelled both during exercise and at rest.

   At rest, the result was a net gain in gas. Not fun.

   But after exercise? Things got juicy. After short bursts of mild physical activity, the scientists found that the amount of gas evacuated was greater than the amount infused. Exercise forced the removal of the added experimental gas and then some — meaning, it also pushed out gas hanging around even at baseline.

   So after a fart walk, you’ll be better off than you started.

   DG

   derek guy@dieworkwear · Nov 29

   imagine posing for a photographer friend who sells your image to istock and a year later, you see this is what the washington post has done with your image

   

   View on X

1. The Algorithmic Turn: The Emerging Evidence On AI Tutoring That's Hard to Ignore: An excellent and balanced piece on impact of AI on education.

   The Harvard study was conducted using GPT-4 in autumn 2023; by the time the paper was published in 2025, the underlying technology had already advanced. If AI tutoring can produce effect sizes of 0.73 to 1.3 standard deviations now, whilst still requiring pre-written solutions and careful scaffolding to prevent errors, what happens when the models can reason through physics problems independently? When they can diagnose misconceptions in real time? When they can adapt not just to individual students but to culturally specific contexts?

   and

   Yet there is a troubling paradox at the heart of AI tutoring. The very same technology that can produce effect sizes above 0.7 standard deviations can also make students demonstrably worse at learning. And I would argue that the harmful version is the one most students are currently using today.

2. If a bot passes your exam, what are you teaching?

   My Tools in Data Science course has a Remote Online Exam. It was so difficult that, in 2023, it sparked threads titled “What is the purpose of an impossible ROE?”

   Today, despite making the test harder, students solve it easily with Claude, ChatGPT, etc.

3. The Effect of Video Watching on Children’s Skills:

   This paper documents video consumption among school-aged children in the U.S. and explores its impact on human capital development. Video watching is common across all segments of society, yet surprisingly little is known about its developmental consequences. With a bunching identification strategy, we find that an additional hour of daily video consumption has a negative impact on children’s noncognitive skills, with harmful effects on both internalizing behaviors (e.g., depression) and externalizing behaviors (e.g., social difficulties). We find a positive effect on math skills, though the effect on an aggregate measure of cognitive skills is smaller and not statistically significant. These findings are robust and largely stable across most demographics and different ways of measuring skills and video watching. We find evidence that for Hispanic children, video watching has positive effects on both cognitive and noncognitive skills—potentially reflecting its role in supporting cultural assimilation. Interestingly, the marginal effects of video watching remain relatively stable regardless of how much time children spend on the activity, with similar incremental impacts observed among those who watch very little and those who watch for many hours.

4. Friction Was the Feature:

   There was a time when applying for a job meant choosing a handful of roles, tailoring a resume, and writing a real cover letter. The effort was a nuisance, but it quietly enforced focus. If you were going to burn a Saturday on an application, you probably cared about the job.

   Today, a candidate armed with an LLM can parse dozens of job postings, lift phrasing from each, and generate a set of keyword-optimized cover letters in no time. They can auto-tailor their resume to each posting. They can submit 30 applications in one sitting.

   This is better, right?

   Not for anyone, actually. Applications soar; recruiters drown. So we bolt on more automation: applicant tracking systems, resume parsers, AI interview schedulers. We convince ourselves we’ve built a better machine, but we haven’t redesigned the only machine that matters: the system matching the right people to the right work.

5. Nano Banana Pro aka gemini-3-pro-image-preview is the best available image generation model: Read the whole thing and never believe an image again.

   That’s a pretty extraordinary result for such a simple prompt. The text is all spelled correctly and rendered without glitches. The content is solid too—it even included logos for the most popular publish platforms, and a tiny thumbnail of the Datasette UI which is close-enough for an infographic.

6. Optimize your LinkedIn:

   AP

   Aniket Panjwani@aniketapanjwani · Nov 8

   If you're an econ PhD job market candidate looking for a private sector job, here's what you need to do to optimize your LinkedIn:
   
   1. profile pic. find an undergrad good at making tiktoks and pay them $40 to take a decent picture of you
   2. no "open to work" flag. on LinkedIn this screams "I'm desperate", don't hire me.
   3. headline. I recommend something like "<uni_name> Economics PhD Candidate | Quantitative Research & Data Analytics | AI & ML Engineering". you can adjust the latter two phrases for the broad tranches of private sector jobs you want.
   4. connections. send connection requests to everyone you know up to your limits until you hit 500. It looks weird to people on LinkedIn if someone has 10 connections. here's mine, send me a request and I'll accept:

   View on X

7. The Constitution of Innovation:

   However around 1980, this unprecedented growth period ended. While the United States maintained a remarkably constant 2 percent growth rate in average income, the European core economies decelerated, slowly and then sharply. Since 1995, Europe’s average annual growth has been just 1.1 percent; since 2004, it has been a mere 0.7 percent – all while the United States has continued on its steady track. By 2022 the relative gap in output per head has returned to where it was in 1970. Decades of convergence were surprisingly wiped out.4

8. Norway's Wealth Tax Unchains a Capital Exodus: Perhaps Norway needs to click the previous link.

   Norway's wealth tax increase, expected to raise $146M, led to a $448M net loss as $54B in wealth left the country, reducing tax revenue by $594M.

9. ‘Are they going to eat me alive?’: trail runners become prey in newest form of hunting:

   Would you like to be chased by a pack of hounds? It’s a question often put to highlight the cruelty of hunting, because the answer would seem to be no. Or so you would think.

   Yet increasing numbers of people are volunteering to be chased across the countryside by baying bloodhounds in what could soon be the only legal way to hunt with dogs in England and Wales, rather than pursuing animals or their scents.

10. She Took JPMorgan for $175 Million. That Doesn’t Include Her Restaurant Bills.:

    In September, Ms. Javice, 33, was sentenced to more than seven years in prison for fraud. In 2021, JPMorgan Chase acquired her start-up, Frank, for $175 million. Ms. Javice had claimed her company helped millions of people fill out their federal financial aid forms.

    After the acquisition, however, the bank discovered that she had lied about most of Frank’s customers. JPMorgan sued, and then prosecutors put Ms. Javice on trial. A jury convicted her this year.

    Along the way, Ms. Javice won a ruling that required the bank to pay her legal fees. JPMorgan has objected to the size of the fees in the past, and after her sentencing it decided to try to cut her off. The bank is trying the same maneuver with her former chief growth and acquisition officer, Olivier Amar, who was also convicted of fraud.

11. Dog Accidentally Shoots and Injures a Pennsylvania Man, the Police Say: No comment.

    The man had been cleaning a shotgun and placed it on the bed shortly before it was fired. He received treatment at an area hospital.

1. Brenda:

   I'm worried that they put co-pilot in Excel because Excel is the beast that drives our entire economy and do you know who has tamed that beast?

   Brenda.

   Who is Brenda?

   She is a mid-level employee in every finance department, in every business across this stupid nation and the Excel goddess herself descended from the heavens, kissed Brenda on her forehead and the sweat from Brenda's brow is what allows us to do capitalism. [...]

   She's gonna birth that formula for a financial report and then she's gonna send that financial report to a higher up and he's gonna need to make a change to the report and normally he would have sent it back to Brenda but he's like oh I have AI and AI is probably like smarter than Brenda and then the AI is gonna fuck it up real bad and he won't be able to recognize it because he doesn't understand Excel because AI hallucinates.

   You know who's not hallucinating?

   Brenda.

2. Lovely Bakes, No Wig:

   Jasmine Mitchell, the winner of the 16th season of “The Great British Baking Show,” stood out in the competition mainly for her creations — including a cake that was nearly four feet long — but also for her statement earrings, brightly colored outfits and her shiny, hairless head.

3. Optimists: In stock market there's a saying: Pessimists sounds smart, optimists make money. Turns out they live longer too.

   Optimism is a psychological attribute characterized as the general expectation that good things will happen, or the belief that the future will be favorable because one can control important outcomes. Previous studies reported that more optimistic individuals are less likely to suffer from chronic diseases and die prematurely. Our results further suggest that optimism is specifically related to 11 to 15% longer life span, on average, and to greater odds of achieving “exceptional longevity,” that is, living to the age of 85 or beyond. These relations were independent of socioeconomic status, health conditions, depression, social integration, and health behaviors (e.g., smoking, diet, and alcohol use). Overall, findings suggest optimism may be an important psychosocial resource for extending life span in older adults.

4. Why I Stopped Being a Climate Catastrophist: Climate change seems quite visible. This year it rained in Indore through early November. In 90's and even early'00s anything beyond mid-September was extremely unusual. But is it catastrophic? Will it become so? Maybe not.

   Depending on how much weight one gives to individual studies and models, versus broader literature reviews and scientific assessments, you can find some evidence for some intensification of some features of tropical cyclone behavior and frequency in some places. But what you won’t find, Norris’ reference to a single unpublished and unpeer-reviewed study notwithstanding, is good evidence that climate change has affected those things very much.

5. He’s Been Charged With Dozens of Crimes. Nobody Knows His Name.

   Investigators confirmed that the caller was actually Carl Avinger and that the defendant was not. Nor was he Carl E. Avinger, John Stamp, Bobby Jackson, Craig Taylor, Graig T aylor, Anthony S. Williams, Kevin C. Windley, Kevin Windleg, Corey Blake Duncan, Marco Ferrari, Marco Ferrare, Elvis Taylor or Elvis Teller — names he had used to commit dozens of crimes across the city, on Long Island and as far away as Oklahoma over the last three decades, according to court, jail and prison records, and internal Police Department documents obtained by The New York Times.

    

   In the months that followed, Melinda Katz, the Queens district attorney, and her prosecutors from the housing bureau unearthed more information about the man whose roughly half-century life had been defined by deceit. But there was one fact they had yet to discover: his name.

6. UATX Is Ending Tuition Forever: Interesting but will it matter? See #7.

   UATX will never charge tuition. And we will never take government money.

7. University education as we know it is over

   TL;DR: AI now solves university assignments perfectly in minutes. Students often use LLMs as a crutch rather than as a tutor, getting answers without understanding. To address these problems, I propose a barbell strategy: pure fundamentals (no AI) on one end, full-on AI projects on the other, with no mushy middle. Universities should focus on fundamentals.

8. You Should Write An Agent:

   Some concepts are easy to grasp in the abstract. Boiling water: apply heat and wait. Others you really need to try. You only think you understand how a bicycle works, until you learn to ride one.

   There are big ideas in computing that are easy to get your head around. The AWS S3 API. It’s the most important storage technology of the last 20 years, and it’s like boiling water. Other technologies, you need to get your feet on the pedals first.

   LLM agents are like that.

   People have wildly varying opinions about LLMs and agents. But whether or not they’re snake oil, they’re a big idea. You don’t have to like them, but you should want to be right about them. To be the best hater (or stan) you can be.

   So that’s one reason you should write an agent. But there’s another reason that’s even more persuasive, and that’s

   It’s Incredibly Easy

9. Game design is simple, actually:

   So, let’s just walk through the whole thing, end to end. Here’s a twelve-step program for understanding game design.

   One thing I have noticing recently is that there are a ton of interesting blogs out there. Of course, there is substack, but there is a lot more and of extremely high quality except that my discovery model has broken down. Twitter / Google are no longer the best discovery option. I would like a better solution to this problem.

1. 5'11"?:

   H

   Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban · Oct 27

   Objectively one of the funnier graphs out there. Measured vs. reported male height.

   

   View on X

2. Pumpkin Stylists Are Making a Killing This Fall:

   Her most popular package today is her smallest, which costs $325, comes with about 20 pumpkins and takes her six minutes to assemble into a display. The second-most popular is the biggest, at $1,350; that one takes her about 30 minutes. She can do the installations in the dark, wearing a headlamp.

3. Japan’s sushi legend Jiro Ono turns 100 and is not ready for retirement:

   What’s the secret of his health? “To work,” Ono replied to the question by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, who congratulated him.

   “I can no longer come to the restaurant every day ... but even at 100, I try to work if possible. I believe the best medicine is to work.”

4. She hiked the entire Appalachian Trail at 80, unaware she’d just made history:

   The day Betty Kellenberger hit a patch of freezing rain on Mount Madison, quitting crossed her mind. She was hungry, cold and sore.

   “You’re 80 years old,” she told herself in a pep talk atop a mountain in New Hampshire. “You can do it.”

   A few months later, Kellenberger stood at the Massachusetts-Vermont border, having just finished hiking the entire 2,197-mile Appalachian Trail. She became, without realizing it, the oldest woman ever to do it.

   “We put all kinds of limitations on ourselves,” said Kellenberger, who lives in Carson City, Michigan. “Sometimes the biggest one is we don’t get up and try it.”

5. I Tried the First Humanoid Home Robot. It Got Weird. I look forward to the day something like this becomes real and it may be "real soon now", but I think this take from Daring Fireball is exactly right:

   The argument from CEO Bernt Børnich is that they’re using the videos from the current state of Neo, where its actions are entirely remote-controlled by employees of 1X Technologies, to train its autonomy. I call bullshit. This looks to me like nothing but a scam. It’s not autonomous at all, I don’t believe this company is going to achieve any practical degree of autonomy with this product, and even while it’s remote-controlled by human operators, it’s slow and clumsy.

6. 5 Tips When Consulting ‘Dr.’ ChatGPT: As someone who has saved hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars in Physiotherapy bill using ChatGPT and is seemingly at the verge of fixing a long-standing chronic back pain, I am a fan. Used sensibly this is a powerful tool. Sensibly being the key word.

   For me, the ability to ask unlimited questions and provide unlimited context was a huge unlock relative to visiting a Physio. Also the time saved going to and from the clinic meant I could be much more regular.

   I fully agree that sharing detailed context and inviting clarifying questions are very important.

   In general, A.I. chatbots are far better at offering answers than asking questions, so they tend to skip the important follow-ups a physician would ask, Dr. Turken said — like whether you have any underlying conditions or are taking any medications. This is especially problematic when you’re asking about potential diagnoses or medical advice.

   To compensate, Dr. Turken recommended prompting the chatbot with a line like: “Ask me any additional questions you need to reason safely.”

7. When Will Quantum Computing Work?

   Huge investments are flowing into QC companies today. IonQ has a $19B market cap, Rigetti has a $10B cap, and PsiQuantum recently raised $1B.3D-Wave is not relevant, despite high qubit counts. Their machines are annealers, rather than gate based, and have less computational power than the QCs that IonQ, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, etc. are working on. This is a lot of money for an industry generating no real revenue, and without an apparent path to revenue over the next 5 years. Qubit counts have not been doubling each year, but even if they did, we'd have 32 kq machines in 2030.4If qubits double each year, 1,000 qubits today grows to 32 kq in 5 years' time. There are few - if any - commercial applications for machines of that size. Will these companies keep raising larger rounds until they achieve 100 kq? Or have they got some secret sauce we don't know about that investors are betting on?

8. Depreciation: A skeptical take.

   He assumes that the ASICs are obsolete when they can no longer keep up with the hash rate so are no longer mining any Bitcoin. That is wrong. ASICs are obsolete when the Bitcoin they mine no longer pay for the electricity they use. The newer ASICs aren't just faster, they also use much less energy per hash. Look again at the depreciation graph, which suggests current ASICs go obsolete after 16 quarters. But Alex de Vries and Christian Stoll's estimate of 5 quarters to obsolescence is based on comparing the ASIC's production with the cost of their power consumption, which is the correct approach. The curves in the graph are correct out to the 40% line, but then should drop to zero.

9. What Palantir Sees:

   Douthat: So we’re going to talk about a lot of things. We’re going to talk about your biography and background, how you came to be an officer in the U.S. military, the future of technology and warfare. But we have to start with a very, very simple question: What is it that Palantir does?

   Sankar: Great question.

   Douthat: Thank you.

   Sankar: Obviously the most important question, yeah.

   Douthat: I spent a long time crafting it, I have to say.

1. Landon Donovan’s new hair, and the side effect he wasn’t expecting (NYT): As a man of a certain age, this hit a little too close to home. But, hats off (heheh!) to the man for having the courage to participate in a story like this. Making the world a hair safer for the rest of us.

   Donovan’s journey to a hair system started two decades ago when, as a 20-year-old, he noticed his hair was receding. He remembers one moment when he was warming up for a game against FC Dallas in Frisco and fans started chanting at him: “Rogaine! Rogaine!”

2. Populism fast and slow:

   Working through the consequences of this, it is not difficult to see why the left has been unable to get much traction out of these changes, especially in developed countries. People are not rebelling against economic elites, but rather against cognitive elites. Narrowly construed, it is a rebellion against executive function. More generally, it is a rebellion against modern society, which requires the ceaseless exercise of cognitive inhibition and control, in order to evade exploitation, marginalization, addiction, and stigma. Elites have basically rigged all of society so that, increasingly, one must deploy the cognitive skills possessed by elites to successfully navigate the social world. (Try opening a bank account, renting an apartment, or obtaining a tax refund, without engaging in analytical processing.) The left, to the extent that it favours progress, is essentially committed to intensifying the features of the modern world that impose the greatest burdens of self-inhibition on individuals.

   Seeing things in this way makes it easier to understand why people get so worked up over seemingly minor issues, like language policing. The problem with demanding political correctness in speech, and punishing or ostracizing those who fail, is that it turns every conversation into a Stroop test, allowing elites the opportunity to exhibit conspicuous self-control. It requires the typical person, while speaking, to actively suppress the familiar word that is primed (e.g. “homeless”), and to substitute through explicit cognition the recently-minted word that is now favoured (e.g. “unhoused”). Elites are not just insensitive, but positively dismissive of the burdens that this imposes on many people. As a result, by performing the cognitive operation with such fluidity, they are not only demonstrating their superiority, they are rubbing other people’s faces in it. (From this perspective, it is not surprising that the demand for “they/them” pronouns upset some people even more, because the introduction of a plural pronoun forces a verb change, which requires an even more demanding cognitive performance.)

3. Age Inversion:

   Everyone under 30 is prematurely old (worried about savings, career, FIRE).

   Everyone over 50 is desperately young (Burning Man, psychedelics).

   My theory: Information abundance aged the young by showing them all future problems all at once.

   Information abundance also made the old young by showing them all missed experiences all at once.

   So now Gen Z talks like retirement planners and boomers act like teenagers.

   It's so over.

   FN

   Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠@basedlayer · Oct 18

   Everyone under 30 is prematurely old (worried about savings, career, FIRE).
   
   Everyone over 50 is desperately young (Burning Man, psychedelics).
   
   My theory: Information abundance aged the young by showing them all future problems all at once.
   
   Information abundance also made the old young by showing them all missed experiences all at once.
   
   So now Gen Z talks like retirement planners and boomers act like teenagers.
   
   It's so over.

   View on X

1. Happy Diwali to those who celebrate! NYT had two glossy stories on just one Diwali Ball in New York organized by Priyanka Chopra's manager. Made me go "Hmmm...". Was this about Diwali, was this about Priyanka Chopra or was this something else?

2. London Became a Global Hub for Phone Theft. Now We Know Why. Not a fan of clickbait headlines in NYT TBH but this story was revealing. I was under the impression that phone theft was a thing of past because of the hard to crack passcodes. Turns out not. The article didn't make it very clear how the thieves could get the phones working again. Apparently they can be sold for parts and something something China. Anyway, time to be careful out there again.

3. The pendulum has swung away from wokeness and cancel culture, as it should have. But sometimes it feels like, instead of passing through the center it went straight to the other end.

4. Title Arbitrage as Status Engineering:

   Title arbitrage is one of the most scalable levers a company can pull to increase the status of certain roles and attract talent. It costs nothing, works at scale, yet has the ability to reshape labor markets. The design space for title arbitrage remains wide open.

5. There are many ways through which the LLM subscriptions pay for themselves. For me it was physiotherapy. Here it is filing tax returns. I also wish more people would share "how tos" for solving different problems with LLMs. Here's a manual for tax returns. Full disclosure: I haven't tried it yet but the source is credible.

   PM

   Patrick McKenzie@patio11 · Oct 15

   @TheZvi Are you going to write an essay about that second thing or do I have to, because feels extremely obvious that there needs to be a URL “They can now successfully shake money tree for you *additively to what your highly paid advisor will do.*”

   View on X

6. Five technological achievements! (That we won’t see any time soon.):

7. Observations on AI and the Capital Markets in 2025

   "To provide some sense of scale, that means the equivalent of about $1,800 per person in America will be invested this year on AI". That is a bucketload of spending.

8. China Can't Win: Retweets are not endorsments, as they say. However there is a chorus of experts out there loudly claiming that China holds the upper hand in the tariff negotiations with US. I am not so sure and this looks like a worthwhile counterpoint. Added to reading list.

   China cannot win the decoupling because they face an impossible trilemma: protect the currency, bail out the banks, or maintain social stability. They can pick two at most. More likely, they get one. The math is unforgiving: $5-10 trillion in hidden property losses against $3 trillion in bank equity. That’s not a solvency problem—it’s a physics problem. Meanwhile, they’re bleeding $1.1 trillion annually just to hide the losses, burning their entire defense and R&D budget combined on financial zombies.

9. Now that wokeness is over, is it ok to link to Louis CK clips again? Can one separate the art from the artist? I don't know but I love this one:

1. An Economists Guide to Weight Loss: Pre-Ozempic. New Year Resolution?

2. The Patel Motel Story: I hope its well done. Must watch.

3. 99 Percentile vs. 99.9 Percentile: Some of the responses are insightful too. This can be the problem of growing up in a small town or going to a "weaker" school for a certain type of person.

   JS

   Justin Skycak@justinskycak · Oct 4

   Last year I had a conversation with someone who majored in physics at UChicago. He initially started in math & thought he was prepared having taken AP Calculus BC, but he got smacked in the face by the level of abstraction and proof-writing ability that was assumed.
   
   He couldn't keep up with his classmates who had already done proofs while taking even MORE advanced courses in high school. So he switched to physics where proofs were less frequent & the playing field felt more level in terms of prior knowledge that classmates had coming in.
   
   He would have liked to study math if he had more time to catch up, or if he knew earlier how far behind he was – but he did great in his high school math classes & was recognized as one of the "smart kids," so he never suspected he was actually behind the curve.
   
   Zooming out, this case study is representative of a general phenomenon that can sneak up on you when you’re at, say, the 99th percentile of a skill.
   
   At first, you’re exceptional enough that you receive praise from virtually everyone, and you may never go head-to-head with someone who can beat you.
   
   That is, until you join some specialized program where everyone is at the 99.9th percentile – where, suddenly, you’re the worst one there.
   
   And here’s the real kicker: if it’s a time-sensitive program, you may be so far behind that it’s infeasible to catch up.
   
   If you knew the caliber of these people earlier, you could have spent time working harder to join their ranks in the 99.9th percentile…
   
   but that moment has passed, and now the door is closed on this opportunity.

   View on X

4. Bernie Madoff Stole My Savings. Here’s How I Got My Life Back.: Hats off.

   I think people who are facing a sudden reversal can learn from my experience. You can get through it. You have family, you have friends, you have resources that you don’t even know that you have.

5. Average? I had to go down about 100 responses before someone asked, "Man or woman?"

   NS

   Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion · Oct 9

   Is 5'11" (180.3 cm) tall, average, or short?

   View on X

1. Your Review: The Russo-Ukrainian War - Astral Codex Ten:

   One day as I was being lectured by a female HR representative for leaving my (cloth, non-medical) mask off for too long during lunch, I could barely hear what she was saying. All I could think of were the uncounted men across untold generations who had lived and died as warriors, with all the honor and pain that entailed. I thought of how men in Ukraine right now lived a modern version of that, while I allowed myself to be subject to the feminized safteyist ideology of everyday civilization.

   The spiritual offensiveness of this contrast hit me like a ton of bricks, more vividly than ever. At that moment I silently made my final decision. I wasn’t going to wait around to hear back from the Ukrainian Government. It was time, in the immortal words of an ISIS recruiter on Twitter to “put down the chicken wings n come to jihad, bro”.

   The entire non-book review contest at Astral Codex Ten has been fantastic.

2. Subjective Time:

   Like most people, I’ve noticed that time seems to speed up as one gets older. I moved to California in 2017, and the past 8 years seemed to pass by very quickly. I feel like time is moving twice as fast as when I was 35. Even as a 16-year old high school student I had already noticed that those “long summer vacations” seemed to pass by at twice the speed as when I was only 8 years old.

   In mathematical terms, subjective time seems roughly proportional to the inverse of one’s age. (At least since age 3 or 4, before that I recall nothing.) At age N, each lived year represents 1/nth of our life. If this is true, then this has some fairly startling implications.

3. Jane Goodall: A life well lived, can anyone ask for more

   LN

   Leading Nowhere@leading_nowhere · Oct 2

   A life well lived, can anyone ask for more.

   View on X

4. Democracy vs. Dictatorship

   NS

   Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion · Apr 22

   What's also kind of nuts about this is how spiky China's pyramid is, compared to how smooth India's is.
   
   Those spikes are the legacy of the Great Leap Forward famine and the One-Child Policy.

   View on X

5. 21 Facts About Throwing Good Parties:

   Let me repeat that: Parties are a public service, you’re doing people a favor by throwing them. Someone might meet their new best friend or future lover at your gathering. In the short term, lovely people may feel less lonely, and that's thanks to you. In the long term, whole new children may ultimately exist in the world because you bothered to throw a party. Throwing parties is stressful for most people, but a great kindness to the community, so genuinely pat yourself on the back for doing this.

   Not so much facts, as very good opinions, but still.

6. New data on social media (MR):

   It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline, according to an analysis of the online habits of 250,000 adults in more than 50 countries carried out for the FT by the digital audience insights company GWI. And this is not just the unwinding of a bump in screen time during pandemic lockdowns — usage has traced a smooth curve up and down over the past decade-plus.

   Societies, generations tend to develop immunity from toxic trends over time.

7. Do LLMs favor outputs created by themselves? (MR)

   It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline, according to an analysis of the online habits of 250,000 adults in more than 50 countries carried out for the FT by the digital audience insights company GWI. And this is not just the unwinding of a bump in screen time during pandemic lockdowns — usage has traced a smooth curve up and down over the past decade-plus.

   Is it surprising that a system trained on human output is tribal, favoring in-group over out-group?

8. Sora update #1:

   Please expect a very high rate of change from us; it reminds me of the early days of ChatGPT. We will make some good decisions and some missteps, but we will take feedback and try to fix the missteps very quickly. We plan to do our iteration on different approaches in Sora, but then apply it consistently across our products.

1. Pulse: These days my morning work routine starts with trying to replicate this functionality through the use of multiple prompts and GPTs, so I am looking forward to when then feature comes to cattle class subscriptions.

   SA

   Sam Altman@sama · Sep 25

   Today we are launching my favorite feature of ChatGPT so far, called Pulse. It is initially available to Pro subscribers.
   
   Pulse works for you overnight, and keeps thinking about your interests, your connected data, your recent chats, and more. Every morning, you get a custom-generated set of stuff you might be interested in.
   
   It performs super well if you tell ChatGPT more about what's important to you. In regular chat, you could mention “I’d like to go visit Bora Bora someday” or “My kid is 6 months old and I’m interested in developmental milestones” and in the future you might get useful updates.
   
   Think of treating ChatGPT like a super-competent personal assistant: sometimes you ask for things you need in the moment, but if you share general preferences, it will do a good job for you proactively.
   
   This also points to what I believe is the future of ChatGPT: a shift from being all reactive to being significantly proactive, and extremely personalized.
   
   This is an early look, and right now only available to Pro subscribers. We will work hard to improve the quality over time and to find a way to bring it to Plus subscribers too.
   
   Huge congrats to @ChristinaHartW, @_samirism, and the team for building this.

   View on X

2. YouTube Star MrBeast Is Building an Entertainment Empire - Bloomberg: Beast Industries sounds like a regular corporation with regular corporate problems.

   Right now, however, Beast Industries is hemorrhaging money. It’s had three years of losses, including more than $110 million in 2024. The viral videos account for all of it, overwhelming the profits from Feastables. Donaldson has been spending between $3 million and $4 million on every video he produces for the main YouTube channel, most of which lose money. In 2023, Beast spent $10 million to $15 million shooting videos it never released to the public because they weren’t up to its standards. He also lost tens of millions of dollars producing Beast Games, a popular show for Amazon Prime Video in which 1,000 people competed for $10 million by, among other things, moving a 10,000-pound boulder.

3. AP

   Alex Prompter@alex_prompter · Sep 22

   This is going to revolutionize education 📚
   
   Google just launched "Learn Your Way" that basically takes whatever boring chapter you're supposed to read and rebuilds it around stuff you actually give a damn about.
   
   Like if you're into basketball and have to learn Newton's laws, suddenly all the examples are about dribbling and shooting. Art kid studying economics? Now it's all gallery auctions and art markets.
   
   Here's what got me though. They didn't just find-and-replace examples like most "personalized" learning crap does. The AI actually generates different ways to consume the same information:
   
   - Mind maps if you think visually
   - Audio lessons with these weird simulated teacher conversations
   - Timelines you can click around
   - Quizzes that change based on what you're screwing up
   
   They tested this on 60 high schoolers. Random assignment, proper study design. Kids using their system absolutely destroyed the regular textbook group on both immediate testing and when they came back three days later.
   
   Every single one said it made them more confident.
   
   The part that surprised me? They actually solved the accuracy problem. Most ed-tech either dumbs everything down to nothing or gets basic facts wrong.
   
   These guys had real pedagogical experts evaluate every piece on like eight different measures.
   
   Look, textbooks have sucked for centuries not because publishers are idiots, but because making personalized versions was basically impossible at scale. That just changed.
   
   This isn't some K-12 thing either. Corporate training could work this way. Technical documentation. Professional development.
   
   Imagine if every boring compliance course used examples from your actual job instead of generic office scenarios.
   
   We might have just watched the industrial education model crack for the first time. About damn time.

   

   View on X

Ignoring the hype up top, Google does seem to be creating some practical tools with LLMs. With base LLMs getting quite good now, I wonder if the next unlock is in creating tools with customized workflows for specific tasks. Wrappers.

4. Periodic Videos

1. If you’ve got a compliment, just let it out.

   JP

   jay plemons@jayplemons · Sep 7

   The Power of a Compliment
   
   Scott Adams tells the story of a woman in a public speaking class who transforms from terrified to confident through encouraging words from her peers
   
   @ScottAdamsSays “If you withhold a compliment that you’re thinking, it’s almost immoral.
   
   If you’ve got a compliment, just let it out.”

   

   View on X

2. And the amazing thing is that the opposite works too!

   I think I mentioned this before but I was a national speech and debate octafinalist in high school and I was able to parlay that into a job running a debate program at an ambitious charter middle school in college.

   My approach was the exact opposite of this. Like half the kids were TERRIFIED of public speaking and were only doing it because their tiger moms insisted they had to (and the other half LOVED the attention).

   I had a lot of trouble getting the scared kids to open up and one day I asked one of the youngest ones what made her so afraid of speaking in front of the class, especially since they were all her friends.

   And she told me she was afraid she’d say something dumb or make a mistake and everyone would make fun of her. And that they’d laugh and laugh at her if she froze up.

   The next day I asked the class if anyone was scared of being made fun of and all the shy kids raised their hands.

   Now I don’t actually know if this is the same pathology in adults with fear of public speaking but I suspect it’s similar, and now I’ll get to how I addressed it which worked fabulously.

   First I told them that this was a ridiculous fear and that no one would make fun of them. But of course that doesn’t do anything lol. But then I told everyone to rip out 10 pieces of paper from their notebooks and crumple them up.

   And I told them I was going to give a speech. I told them if I said “uhh” or “um” or used any filler words they were to throw a paper ball at me and shout “shame!” 3 times pointing at me.

   And I gave a terrible speech. And they loved it! It was so much fun for them.

   But then! I had the students give speeches with the same rules, starting with the confident ones.

   After the third student the shy ones were volunteering.

   After the lesson I explained to them that we had accomplished 2 things:

   1. We had demonstrated how absurd such a reaction really is, because none of them would have ever reacted in that way if they weren’t specifically asked to, and none of them had any actual malice even when they did shout “shame” at their classmates

   2. Everyone had experienced the comically worst case scenario imaginable of public speaking and survived!

   So they became the rule during EVERY class and I was told by the other teachers that my shy students had started leading presentations and speaking up in class and some of them asked me how I worked with them.

   They were HORRIFIED when I told them lol.

   But it worked!

   This reminds me of Boggarts in the Harry Potter books.

3. Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus:

   This guy is founding an evangelical church, and I find his ecosystem fascinating. First for its stunning similarities to venture-capital-funded tech start-ups, and then for its simplicity and open-heartedness. None of the dynamics in church planting are unique or even particularly rare, but they are unobfuscated, and that makes church planting the equivalent of a large print book for the social dynamics that favor charismatic narcissists.

4. Moon helium deal is biggest purchase of natural resources from space:

   Finnish tech firm Bluefors, a maker of ultracold refrigerator systems critical for quantum computing, has purchased tens of thousands of liters of Helium-3 from the moon — spending “above $300 million” — through a commercial space company called Interlune. The agreement, which has not been previously reported, marks the largest purchase of a natural resource from space.

5. We Are Going to Have to Live Here With One Another (NYT): I try to avoid posting political or negative items but this was worth making an excception for. A long and insightful discussion between Ezra Klein and Ben Shapiro. Eye opening, if you read with an open mind.

6. They traveled to Thailand. They wound up cyber scam slaves in Myanmar.: Scary. I am not sure I like graphical news but an interesting experiment.

7. Teen depression has declined for the past 4 years, after peaking in 2021.:

   CS

   Chris Said@Chris_Said · Sep 17

   Teen depression has *declined* for the past 4 years, after peaking in 2021.
   
   People should update on this.
   
   The most parsimonious explanation is @glukianoff's theory that wokeness encouraged catastrophic thinking, acting as a sort of “reverse CBT”.

   

   View on X

8. ICPC medals for OpenAI and Gemini:

   We received the problems in the exact same PDF form, and the reasoning system selected which answers to submit with no bespoke test-time harness whatsoever. For 11 of the 12 problems, the system’s first answer was correct. For the hardest problem, it succeeded on the 9th submission. Notably, the best human team achieved 11/12.

   We competed with an ensemble of general-purpose reasoning models; we did not train any model specifically for the ICPC. We had both GPT-5 and an experimental reasoning model generating solutions, and the experimental reasoning model selecting which solutions to submit. GPT-5 answered 11 correctly, and the last (and most difficult problem) was solved by the experimental reasoning model.

   and

   An advanced version of Gemini 2.5 Deep Think competed live in a remote online environment following ICPC rules, under the guidance of the competition organizers. It started 10 minutes after the human contestants and correctly solved 10 out of 12 problems, achieving gold-medal level performance under the same five-hour time constraint. See our solutions here.

1. Jeremy Lin Retires After 15 Years That Included ‘Linsanity’ With the Knicks (NYT):

   The journeyman played for eight N.B.A. teams and won one championship. But he is best known for a brief stretch on the Knicks where he electrified fans and the nation.

   How to feel old #3892: Linsanity for 13 years ago and I remember it like it was yesterday!

2. How to resist everyday temptations: A guide we can all use, but probably won't.

3. You're Overthinking Packing:

   The amount of planning and thought that needs to go into the enterprise is surprisingly minimal. Count how many days you’re going for, then bring the same number of shirts as the number of days minus one (unless you have access to laundry, then probably less), 2-4 pairs of pants, a couple nicer dresses if that’s your thing and a change of shoes. Something to sleep in at night and a bathing suit if you’re headed somewhere warm. I always bring an extra pair of underwear and socks because sometimes I like to change throughout the day. Then experiment by trying on a bunch items to ensure everything goes together. Frankly, it’s not that different than figuring out what you’re going to wear on a day-to-day basis, which I trust you do all the time.

   Some thinking about packing, maybe some tools (I like using packing cubes and a travel scale is a must when flying budget) are surprisingly useful but yes, the curve drops sharply.

4. My journey from ADHD skeptic to Adderall enthusiast:

   At 22, I thought ADHD was fake. An excuse for underachieving kids to get “accommodations” for procrastinating on their homework. From what vague knowledge I had of stimulants like Adderall, I regarded them with the same scorn as the accommodations.

   Seventeen years later, I credit Adderall with enabling me to build a 10x happier, healthier, more virtuous version of myself (to the chagrin of the countless Twitter trolls decrying my “meth addiction” in reply to this recent viral post). Here is my story.

5. What Is Man, That Thou Art Mindful Of Him?: God and Iblis debate if human intelligence is hitting a wall. Hilarious and insightful.

6. if you meet the singaporean on the road:

   All this effort — fifty years of non-stop toil — turning a fallow wasteland into fertile earth, and where are all the crops we have to show for it? Where are all the local companies that we can point to and be proud of? Where are our Ericssons and Nokias?

7. LLMs Will be Like Ozempic for Golf:

   Rob was fantastic but it’s not as though I can just do a TrackMan excursion all the time. Yet I remained curious about why my swing was what it was. I had decent power, but lacked the ability to square the ball up with anything approaching consistency. Was I destined to always have this problem?

   And so I turned to LLMs, feeding the TrackMan stats into GPT. Based on 12 numbers, from one swing, GPT had me clocked. It knew my strengths and weaknesses. It fully understood the specifics of my poor technique. I’m sure Rob could have walked me through as much, but his time is limited. The machine had all the bandwidth in the world to deal with my “over the top” swing, how to fix it, and any other questions I might nag it with.

   A day later, my swing was different and self recorded video sent to Google’s Gemini confirmed the change. Swing errors that were decades in the making were corrected in the span of minutes. I’m not saying that I’ve suddenly made a leap from “Struggles to break 100” to “scratch golfer.” I’m just saying that a process that could have been expensive and arduous was instead efficient and relatively cheap. I apply the LLM’s fix, and it tells me whether I’ve actually applied it. The feedback is instant and objective.

   LLMs will be like Ozempic for a lot more than golf. Ability to ask unlimited questions without feeling embarrased or paying by the hour is a big deal. Imagination is the only thing limiting us.

8. GPT-5: The Case of the Missing Agent

   It’s hard to say exactly why, even with all this progress, current AI models are still so hopeless at dealing with open-ended real-world situations. GPT-5’s inability to recognize that it was incapable of playing Minesweeper may indicate that its reasoning abilities do not generalize well. Its decision to spend 5 solid hours beating its head against the unimportant side goal of sharing a spreadsheet suggests a lack of training on the importance of setting priorities. The repeated factual errors in Gemini 2.5 Pro’s writeup of its merch store experience (click the link and look for “Editor’s Notes”) suggest an inability to keep track of key information over an extended project. Claude losing track of the fact that it is not a person is a reminder that in some ways these models really are just shallow imitations of human behavior (even as they demonstrate deep capability in other areas).

   So many benefits and so many limitations.

9. Reading with AI:

   Reading a non-fiction book from cover-to-cover is not efficient. I used to say that I read books “from the outside in.” I look at the book flap to find out about the author, who wrote the blurbs, and the subject matter of the book. Then I read the introduction and conclusion in order to get the main ideas. If I have read something by a different author that seems relevant, I look for that author in the index, and I head to those pages.

   and

   Once again, I believe in “Stop, Look, and Listen.” I start by asking the AI to summarize the key themes of the book. For each theme that the AI lists, I stop and try to put it into my own words. I test my understanding by feeding my words into the AI, in order get confirmation that my interpretation is correct. Another way that I ensure understanding is to suggest possible examples or ask the AI to provide examples.

10. How to think about AI progress: Reproducing the entire post as it really is worth reading:

    The Zvi has a good survey post on what is going on with the actual evidence. I have a more general point to make, which I am drawing from my background in Austrian capital theory.

    There are easy projects, and there are hard projects. You might also say short-term vs. long-term investments.

    The easier, shorter-term projects get done first. For instance, the best LLMs now have near-perfect answers for a wide range of queries. Those answers will not be getting much better, though they may be integrated into different services in higher productivity ways.

    Those improvements will yield an ongoing stream of benefits, but you will not see much incremental progress in the underlying models themselves. Ten years from now, the word “strawberry” still will have three r’s, and the LLMs still will tell us that. There are other questions, such as “what is the meaning of life?” where the AI answers also will not get much better. I do not mean that statement as AI pessimism, rather the answers can only get so good because the question is not ideally specified in the first place.

    Then there are the very difficult concrete problems, such as in the biosciences or with math olympiad problems, and so on. Progress in these areas seems quite steady and I would call it impressive. But it will take quite a few years before that progress is turned into improvements in daily life. Again, that does not have to be AI pessimism. Just look at how we run our clinical trials, or how long the FDA approval process takes for new drugs, or how many people are reluctant to accept beneficial vaccines. I predict that AI will not speed up those processes nearly as much as it ideally might.

    So the AI world before us is rather rapidly being bifurcated into two sectors:

    a) progress already is extreme, and is hard to improve upon, and

    b) progress is ongoing, but will take a long time to be visible to actual users and consumers

    And so people will complain that AI progress is failing us, but mostly they will be wrong. They will be the victim of cognitive error and biases. The reality is that progress is continuing apace, but it swallows up and renders ordinary some of its more visible successes. What is left behind for future progress can be pretty slow.

    Yet another periodic reminder that MR and The Zvi are both must-read for everyone.

1. IST: Indian Spotlight Time:

   Exploring the India that often escapes headlines through the lived experiences of an ABCG: American Born Confused Gora. It’s a look beyond polished narratives and the obvious into the beautiful contradictions that actually power the country.

2. SD

   Sam D'Amico@sdamico · Aug 24

   A giant disconnect I see in society right now is the fact that self driving will absolutely take over, AI will absolutely enable 1:1 tutoring for every child, and the past benefits of “good school districts” and housing built around driving personal vehicles will make less sense.

   View on X

3. tokens are getting more expensive: A good discussion of why the AI Labs might stuggle with profitability.

   while it's true each generation of frontier model didn't get more expensive per token, something else happened. something worse. the number of tokens they consumed went absolutely nuclear.

4. Patrick OShaughnessy podcast with Joe Liemandt, Principal @ Alpha School

5. Failure of imagination is the only thing holding us back!

   “

   “paula”@paularambles · Aug 27

   my mom just found a new use case for chatgpt

   

   View on X

1. Why Is Martha’s Vineyard Going Vegan? It’s All About Tick Bites. (NYT):

   On the porch of the Chilmark General Store and at sunset-watching parties on Menemsha Beach, conversations circle ineluctably to the lone star tick, which after a single bite can leave people with a life-threatening allergy to most meat and dairy.

   Known as alpha-gal syndrome, the condition is changing the way many people shop, cook and eat in a place long known as a food-lover’s retreat for its thriving independent farms and restaurants. These new habits may prove to be lasting, as some islanders who initially avoided beef and cheese temporarily, out of necessity, later give them up for good out of preference.

   “It’s sort of supersized vegetarianism,” said Rebecca Miller, a farm owner who has the syndrome herself.

2. Are Samosas Unhealthy? Some Indians Find Official Advice Hard to Swallow.:

   So, when a recent government advisory put samosas — along with other deep-fried Indian snacks and Western foods such as burgers and French fries — on a list of things that should be eaten in moderation because of their high oil and sugar content, there was an unsurprising outcry. Social media erupted with memes, and Indian media chimed in to say the country’s most iconic bites were under attack.

3. @rivatez:

   That animals seemingly anticipate events should humble us more. Changes in groundwater chemistry, electromagnetic fields and sound waves make animals restless, distressed and even relocate

   In the West it is seen as ‘woo’ to contemplate that energy/weather humans don’t consciously experience can affect our psychology, and yet we forget that we are animals too.

   Even outside extreme weather events, the lunar cycle moves oceans, huge bodies of water. We are, like all animals, primarily made of water. The word ‘lunacy’ comes from the ancient understanding that our minds can be affected by it

   An interesting experiment is to log your daily mood for a few months- ups and downs, anxiety / joy levels, big arguments with loved ones etc. Then afterwards, retroactively chart it against lunar cycles and NASA space weather data that tracks geomagnetic storms, solar flares etc.

   Be open- minded and try it. I, too, used to think this stuff was BS

   Now I think much of modern psychiatry is giving people drugs to tune down people’s individual responses to these external inputs, eg ‘bipolar’ might just indicate high sensitivity

   How many important scientific breakthroughs lie on the other side of our collective dismissal of ‘woo’?

   

4. Why I believe in AGI (again):

   First, I’m now convinced that ChatGPT understands what it reads. Second, reasoning models persuade me that ChatGPT is creative. Third, ChatGPT summarizes texts extremely well, which I believe to be a robust measure of intelligence.

5. Derek Thompson:

   "The better news is that this is happening at a time when exercise seems to be increasing for many groups, especially the young and old. The bad news is ... deep Medicaid cuts and declines in childhood vaccine uptake are not exactly optimistic predictors of American health."

6. Your Review: Dating Men In The Bay Area: Not what it says on the label at all! Recommended.

7. Adults Are Going to Sleep-away Camp to Make Friends. It Seems to Actually Work.:

   “Anyone that has worked at camp or grown up in the camp world understands there is a powerful people connection that forms at camp,” said Liam Macleod, a longtime camp professional and marketing director at Camp No Counselors. “It’s camp magic and it’s hard to replicate in the regular world.”

8. What is the most profitable thing you have done with ChatGPT? on Reddit via Simon Willison: In dollar terms, probably crafting fundraising messages for charity event organized by my Alumni Association. In real terms, physiotherapy for my back and legs. So far. Some great examples at the link. Failure of imagination remains the biggest hurdle in getting value from LLMs.

9. AI Is Designing Bizarre New Physics Experiments That Actually Work:

   It took months of effort to understand what the AI was doing. It turned out that the machine had used a counterintuitive trick to achieve its goals. It added an additional three-kilometer-long ring between the main interferometer and the detector to circulate the light before it exited the interferometer’s arms. Adhikari’s team realized that the AI was probably using some esoteric theoretical principles that Russian physicists had identified decades ago to reduce quantum mechanical noise. No one had ever pursued those ideas experimentally. “It takes a lot to think this far outside of the accepted solution,” Adhikari said. “We really needed the AI.”

10. GPT-5 prompting guide:

    GPT-5, our newest flagship model, represents a substantial leap forward in agentic task performance, coding, raw intelligence, and steerability.

    While we trust it will perform excellently “out of the box” across a wide range of domains, in this guide we’ll cover prompting tips to maximize the quality of model outputs, derived from our experience training and applying the model to real-world tasks. We discuss concepts like improving agentic task performance, ensuring instruction adherence, making use of newly API features, and optimizing coding for frontend and software engineering tasks - with key insights into AI code editor Cursor’s prompt tuning work with GPT-5.

    We’ve seen significant gains from applying these best practices and adopting our canonical tools whenever possible, and we hope that this guide, along with the prompt optimizer tool we’ve built, will serve as a launchpad for your use of GPT-5. But, as always, remember that prompting is not a one-size-fits-all exercise - we encourage you to run experiments and iterate on the foundation offered here to find the best solution for your problem.

    And a tutorial by Anthropic.

11. Class Dismissed: Alpha School is getting a lot of coverage all of a sudden. Long piece about the people and the tech behind it.

1. Face it: you're a crazy person:

   I meet a lot of people who don’t like their jobs, and when I ask them what they’d rather do instead, about 75% say something like, “Oh, I dunno, I’d really love to run a little coffee shop.” If I’m feeling mischievous that day, I ask them one question: “Where would you get the coffee beans?”

   If that’s a stumper, here are some followups: Which kind of coffee mug is best? How much does a La Marzocco espresso machine cost? Would you bake your blueberry muffins in-house or would you buy them from a third party?

   The point of the Coffee Beans Procedure is this: if you can’t answer those questions, if you don’t even find them interesting, then you should not open a coffee shop, because this is how you will spend your days as a cafe owner. You will not be sitting droopy-lidded in an easy chair, sipping a latte and greeting your regulars as you page through Anna Karenina. You will be running a small business that sells hot bean water.

2. 50 things I know. And wish I'd known sooner:

   41. It’s almost impossible to have an easy life and be interesting. Suffering is what gives people texture.

   and

   47. Heaven is a set of gradually increasing but attainable challenges.

   Listicle has become a bad word but there is a reason they are popular. A well done one is *chef's kiss *.

3. 27 Notes on Growing Old(er):

   6. The physicist Michael Nielsen tells us that the Polish-American mathematician Stanislaw Ulam perceived his life as sharply divided into two halves: “In the first half, he was always the youngest person in the group. In the second half, he was always the oldest. There was no transitional period.” There was no transitional period.

   and

   17. ... The human condition is that we want it all, and we’re not willing to make trades… ‘deathbed regrets’ typically have the bias of wanting the other path—the path they could have taken—without considering the cost of that path. So they say, “Hey I was really successful and I did all these things, but you know, I would give it all up today to have my family.” It’s like, well yeah, but you didn’t, because you actually chose the path that you’re on, and you weren’t willing to do that. What you are saying right now is that you want it all. Sure. So does everyone.

4. Mad respect for whoever decided that there was a business opportunity here and then made it happen.

   JB

   JUNK BOND ANALYST@junkbondanalyst · Aug 10

   First time hearing about this for me. There’s platforms for buying someone else’s non-refundable vacations at a discount.
   
   There’s always a trade to do.

   

   View on X

5. Space Rock That Punched Through Roof Almost Struck Resident (NYT):

   “I suspect that he heard three simultaneous things,” Mr. Harris said of the person whose home was hit. “One was the collision with his roof, one was a tiny cone of a sonic boom, and a third was it impacting the floor all in the same moment.”

   Looking at the photos, I think he would have died if it had struck him. Here's another amazing ancient rock story from the NYT.

6. Performance Art?

7. The ratio of members!

   RL

   Reddit Lies@reddit_lies · Aug 11

   Dating AI is an almost exclusively a female trait fyi.
   
   The movie "Her" should have been about a woman.

   

   View on X

8. Great thread from a master. Love how he says so much without saying anything. See the photos in the third tweet for a masterpiece (as he puts it, the 3rd and the 4th slide.).

   DG

   derek guy@dieworkwear · Aug 13

   Have you ever noticed that people dressed better in the past? Even in the summer, when it was scorching hot?
   
   Why is this? 🧵

   

   View on X
   DG

   derek guy@dieworkwear · Aug 13

   Even the details had shape: a camp collar, boat neck, or button-down.
   
   Over the years, these details have shrank, if not disappeared altogether. Compare the 3rd and 4th slides. One button-down collar has a full roll; the other looks like its apologizing for its own existence.

   

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9. The Infinite Well: How Innovation Keeps Water Flowing:

   Solutions from experts follow a familiar pattern, claiming that the only way to avert a crisis is to adopt radical social and behavioral changes, driven by moral proselytizing, government intervention, or both, to save the water supply. Environmentalists urge people to replace old toilets with low-flow models, avoid running faucets while brushing their teeth or washing dishes, and switch to eating less water-intensive foods. Meanwhile, activists pressure elected officials to impose usage restrictions, ban certain crops in arid regions, and regulate everything from swimming pools to car washes.

   Fortunately the economics of water innovation reveals why the apparent scarcity tends to be self-correcting, without requiring us to adopt ascetic lifestyles or perform symbolic actions like picking up dropped ice cubes to water house plants or writing letters to elected officials. Rising prices, not moralizing pleas, lead people to conserve, look for substitutes, recycle resources, and innovate helping to meet demand through alternative means or improved efficiency.

   The same principles apply to many other things too.

10. RP

    Ross Pomerantz@TheRealCorpBro · Aug 7

    Product review of my 4 month old son

    

    View on X

1. How to Teach Your Kids Poker, the Easy Way:

   The right way to begin is with one-card poker. Everyone antes one chip and gets one card, face down. You look at your card. There’s a single round of betting, which proceeds around the table: If no one else has bet, you can bet or check (do nothing); if anyone in front of you has bet, you can call (or match the bet), raise or fold. When everyone has called the last bet or folded, those who are left in the hand show their card. The highest card wins: Ace is highest, then king, so on down to two.

   That’s it. No pairs, no flushes, no full houses, no complicated order of hands to remember, though you do have to remember that a queen beats a jack. But you learn a lot of poker. You will always win with an ace, but you have to learn to maximize the value of your ace, to induce other people to bet into you and call your raises. One of my proudest moments as a parent was when my daughter first check-raised me with an ace.

   You’ll probably win with a king, but if someone raises you, does that mean that they have an ace (and have you beat), or a queen (and are overconfident), or a six (and are bluffing)? There are 52 cards, so you can estimate the probabilities if you are mathematically inclined, though if you are four you probably won’t.

   You probably won’t win with a six, but if you bet it confidently you might bluff everyone else out. If everyone else checks, and you’re the last person to bet, you might as well bet: You have “position,” everyone else has a weak hand, and you might be able to steal a pot. The essentials are there.

   Once the kids have mastered this, you can introduce the order of hands gently with two-card poker. (Any pair beats a high card, highest pair wins.) Then teach the rest with five-card straight poker. This isn’t a great game, but it’s a brief stopover on the way to five-card draw, which is a perfectly respectable poker game. Texas hold’em is not far behind.

2. My Father's Instant Mashed Potatoes:

   The chuño-chomping Incans were not the last military to rely on dehydrated potatoes for sustenance. In World War II, the US Army experimented with various forms of potato dehydration to help stretch supply lines. The easiest way to get a uniform potato commodity into the hands of G.I.s was to pulverize the potatoes into granules, dehydrate them, and then plan on bringing them back to life with boiling water in an imitation of “mashed potatoes”.

   Deeper than I would have imagined from the title.

3. A lot more than you wanted to read on College and College Admissions. Depressing.

4. The Imitation Game: Defending against AI's Dark Side!:

   A few weeks ago, I started receiving a stream of message about an Instagram post that I was allegedly starring in, where after offering my views on Palantir's valuation, I was soliciting investors to invest with me (or with an investment entity that had ties to me). I was not surprised, since I have lived with imitations for years, but I was bemused, since I don't have an Instagram account and have not posted on Facebook more than once or twice in a decade. In the last few days, those warnings have been joined by others, who have noted that there is now a video that looks and sounds like me, adding to the sales pitch with promises of super-normal returns if they reach out, and presumably send their money in. (Please don't go looking for these scams online, since the very act of clicking on them can expose you to their reach.)

   It was a matter of time.

5. GPT-5: It Just Does Stuff:

   GPT-5 just does stuff, often extraordinary stuff, sometimes weird stuff, sometimes very AI stuff, on its own. And that is what makes it so interesting.

   To be clear this wasn't my experience. I gave it a PDF and asked it to estimate something based on the data in the file. It made up all the numbers and suggested they were in tables and pages that didn't exist in the PDF. I was not able to get it focused on the actual information in the PDF despite multiple reminders and other attempts. Apparently though, there was a bug in their system yesterday that made it appear dumber. I will try again.

1. Philosopher–Builder Summer Reads:

   These aren't generic "tech books." They're works that can shape how serious builders think about what they're creating and why.

   And the original essay.

2. DOGE builds AI tool to cut 50 percent of federal regulations:

   The tool, called the “DOGE AI Deregulation Decision Tool,” is supposed to analyze roughly 200,000 federal regulations to determine which can be eliminated because they are no longer required by law, according to a PowerPoint presentation obtained by The Post that is dated July 1 and outlines DOGE’s plans. Roughly 100,000 of those rules would be deemed worthy of trimming, the PowerPoint estimates — mostly through the automated tool with some staff feedback. The PowerPoint also suggests the AI tool will save the United States trillions of dollars by reducing compliance requirements, slashing the federal budget and unlocking unspecified “external investment.”

   A worthy goal for DOGE and possibly the right use of AI. If done well.

3. America's AI Action Plan Is Pretty Good:

   Otherwise, while this is far from a perfect plan or the plan I would choose, on the substance it is a good plan, a positive plan, with many unexpectedly good plans within it. There is a lot of attention to detail in ways those I’ve asked say reflect people who actually know what they are doing, which was by no means something to be taken for granted. It is hard to imagine that a much better plan could have been approved given who was doing the approving.

4. JF

   Jim Fan@DrJimFan · Jul 25

   I'm observing a mini Moravec's paradox within robotics: gymnastics that are difficult for humans are much easier for robots than "unsexy" tasks like cooking, cleaning, and assembling. It leads to a cognitive dissonance for people outside the field, "so, robots can parkour & breakdance, but why can't they take care of my dog?" Trust me, I got asked by my parents about this more than you think ...
   
   The "Robot Moravec's paradox" also creates the illusion that physical AI capabilities are way more advanced than they truly are. I'm not singling out Unitree, as it applies widely to all recent acrobatic demos in the industry. Here's a simple test: if you set up a wall in front of the side-flipping robot, it will slam into it at full force and make a spectacle. Because it's just overfitting that single reference motion, without any awareness of the surroundings.
   
   Here's why the paradox exists: it's much easier to train a "blind gymnast" than a robot that sees and manipulates. The former can be solved entirely in simulation and transferred zero-shot to the real world, while the latter demands extremely realistic rendering, contact physics, and messy real-world object dynamics - none of which can be simulated well.
   
   Imagine you can train LLMs not from the internet, but from a purely hand-crafted text console game. Roboticists got lucky. We happen to live in a world where accelerated physics engines are so good that we can get away with impressive acrobatics using literally zero real data. But we haven't yet discovered the same cheat code for general dexterity.
   
   Till then, we'll still get questioned by our confused parents.

   

   View on X

5. Two long & good pieces on India this week though I have yet to fully read both.

6. Jhanas and Jhourney:

   So I went down to the beach. "Kinda nice", I thought. The sky had a particularly vibrant blue color, the waves had 'the right size', their roar was pleasant. I started to walk around trying to continue meditating. I focused my awareness on an arising sensation of open heartedness and then I noticed my eyes tearing up ("Huh? I thought"). I looked again at the ocean and then I saw it. It was fucking amazing. So much color and detail: waves within waves, the fractal structure of the foamy crests as they disintegrate back into the ocean. The feeling of the sun on my skin. I felt overwhelmed. As tears ran down my face and lowkey insane grin settled on my face I found myself mumbling "It's... always been like this!!!!" "What the fuck??!" followed by "This is too much!! Too much!!!". The experience seemed to be demanding from me to feel more joy and awe than I was born to feel or something like that. In that precise moment I felt what "painfully beautiful" means for the first time in my life. I had to look away. I calmed a bit. I walked a few steps and looked back. The exact same thing happened. "It's reproducible, hihihihi", and I started laughing. Then I found a log to sit on, calm down, and look back at the ocean. Now it wasn't overwhelming, but "kinda nice" was now "fucking amazing".

   To do list.

7. Yes, Adam Sandler really is a pickup basketball god (NYT Paywall):

   Jackson was struck by the man’s attire: extra-baggy shorts and an extra-baggy yellow T-shirt. “I’m trying to figure out: Does he buy clothes? Did he buy them and then just stop buying them? His clothes really might have been from 2008.” It soon became apparent, however, that the guy could play. He was a true court general. He impressed Jackson with his basketball IQ.

8. RW

   Rob Wiblin@robertwiblin · Aug 1

   Google now spends more on physical capital like datacentres ($85 billion / year) than the entire UK defence budget ($79 billion / year).

   

   View on X

9. Life in deep:

   When her three-person submersible descended more than 30,000 feet into one of the Pacific Ocean’s deepest trenches, Mengran Du wasn’t sure what they would find.

   What she saw, she recalled, was “unbelievable”: Dense clusters of tubeworms with tentacles tinged bloodred, jutting up like skyscrapers. Iridescent snails scaling the worms, like window washers. Bristly, white creatures wriggling between them like rush-hour commuters trying to get home for dinner.

10. UJ

    UAP James@UAPJames · Jul 31

    NEW: Senator Mike Rounds says credible U.S. Govt whistleblowers have provided him with testimony in classified settings on transmedium UAP.
    
    “It can be both underwater and in the air and can apparently move to very, very high altitudes in a very short period of time.”
    
    “They’re not making this stuff up. There’s something there. We just don’t know what it is.”

    

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11. J

    John_Hempton@John_Hempton · Jul 26

    Fartcoin market cap is still over a billion dollars.
    
    The boys who started this one have probably cashed >100 million.
    
    You have the wrong career. So do I.

    

    View on X

Some readers have commented that I am obsessed with AI. This is not correct. I wish I was. But is there anything more interesting happening in the world right now? I don't think so.

1. Musician Who Died in 2021 Resurrected as Clump of Brain Matter, Now Composing New Music:

   Art can outlast the artist — but what about their artistic impulses?

   A new art installation project in Australia, titled "Revivification," raises this question with a very literal interpretation of "impulse": using his DNA, the team behind the project have performed a quasi-resurrection of the late experimental American composer Alvin Lucier, creating a sort of brain that continuously composes music on the fly with its errant electrical signals.

   At the center of the piece is an "in-vitro brain," grown from blood that Lucier, who passed away in 2021, donated in the final years of his life. Housed in a plinth, it's grown on top of an electrode mesh that connects it to twenty large brass plates placed around the room. Visitors can listen as the brain fires off electrical pulses that trigger a transducer and a mallet behind each plate, striking them to produce sound.

   Is this art? Is this science? Is this composing?

2. Gross(ery) Confusion:

   Teachout’s idea that suppliers “make up the difference” by charging smaller stores more is also economically incoherent. Profit-maximizing firms already charge what the market will bear. If Costco’s volume justifies a discount, that doesn’t mean suppliers can or should charge higher prices to other buyers. Yes, there are models where costs change with volume but costs could go down with volume and, in any case, those models don’t rely on the folk theory of “making up the difference.”

3. AIs and Spontaneous Order:

   This isn’t to say AI won’t help improve economic policy—it might, if we listen. But the future economy won’t look like a centrally planned machine. It will look like an economy of von Neumanns—autonomous agents buying, selling, and strategizing in complex interaction.

4. I Analysed 25,000 Hotel Names and Found Four Surprising Truths:

   And yes, the cat’s out of the bag: there are over 200 Hotels Bristol worldwide, and the reason goes all the way back to an 18th-century English aristocrat whose hotel preferences turned into a naming tradition.

5. I Drank Every Cocktail:

   The International Bartenders Association, or IBA, maintains a list of official cocktails, ones they deem to be “the most requested recipes” at bars all around the world. It’s the closest thing the bartending industry has to a canonical list of cocktails, akin to the American Kennel Club’s registry of dog breeds or a jazz musician’s Real Book of standards. As of 2025, there are 102 IBA official cocktails, and as of July 12, 2025, I’ve had every one of them.

   Legend.

6. How the System Works

   An essay series on the hidden mechanisms that support modern life — and what happens if we don’t maintain them

   This should be amazing. So far, Agriculture, Water and Electricity.

1. The Diaspora Paradox Second in a series from Samir Varma

   But here's the paradox that has haunted me for decades: Why do so many Indians who escape India's constraints become more Indian abroad? Why does the uncle who couldn't be bothered to visit temples in Mumbai suddenly become a founding member of the Hindu temple in New Jersey? Why does the software engineer who rebelled against arranged marriage in Bangalore now insist their American-born daughter marry within the community?

2. The First in 30 Years: Scientists Discover New Class of Antibiotics:

   Led by scientist Gerry Wright, the team has discovered a powerful new molecule called lariocidin. This promising candidate shows the ability to fight some of the toughest, most drug-resistant bacteria known to science. Their groundbreaking findings were published in the journal Nature.

3. Why We’re Surrounding Our Kids with AI:

   We also don’t plan on perpetuating modern Western parents’ egregiously hands-off nature with regard to their kids’ dating and marriage prospects. We already have a going list of agentic, thoughtful, high-achieving families whose kids are close to our kids in age; as our kids get older, we’ll start organizing gatherings for families in this network where our kids can hang out and get to know each other (trips, summer camps, discord servers, study groups, etc.). As our kids reach their late teens and early 20s, we’ll begin organizing modern versions of the London Season—a series of events and gatherings at which our single kids ready for marriage can meet, mix, and get to know each other.

   Did not see this coming.

4. Babies made using three people's DNA are born free of hereditary disease:

   Eight babies have been born in the UK using genetic material from three people to prevent devastating and often fatal conditions, doctors say.

   The method, pioneered by UK scientists, combines the egg and sperm from a mum and dad with a second egg from a donor woman.

5. The Sputnik vs. Deep Seek Moment: The Answers

   I pointed out that the US response to Sputnik was fierce competition. Following Sputnik, we increased funding for education, especially math, science and foreign languages, organizations like ARPA were spun up, federal funding for R&D was increased, immigration rules were loosened, foreign talent was attracted and tariff barriers continued to fall. In contrast, the response to what I called the “DeepSeek” moment has been nearly the opposite. Why did Sputnik spark investment while DeepSeek sparks retrenchment? I examine four explanations from the comments and argue that the rise of zero-sum thinking best fits the data.

6. Reflections on OpenAI:

   I left OpenAI three weeks ago. I had joined the company back in May 2024.

   I wanted to share my reflections because there's a lot of smoke and noise around what OpenAI is doing, but not a lot of first-hand accounts of what the culture of working there actually feels like.

7. ChatGPT Agent and Gold-medal level performance in International Math Olympiad (IMO). More on the IMO.

8. Psychological techniques to persuade AI.

9. Spud-tacular: How India became a french fry superpower:

   Gujarat has become India's capital of french fry production, home to huge factories churning out chips, including facilities belonging to Canadian giant McCain Foods and India's biggest maker of French Fries, HyFun Foods.

10. Bill Ackman changed Tennis forever.

1. Terrified Girls, Helicopters and a Harrowing Scene: A Rescuer’s Account at Camp Mystic (NYT):

   Scott Ruskan, a Coast Guard swimmer, is credited with saving 165 people at the all-girls’ camp from deadly floods in Central Texas.

   Mr. Ruskan realized that staying on scene would free up two extra spots on his helicopter for the evacuees, he said, so he told his unit, “I’d love to stay, I could do a lot more good on the ground.”

   He became the main person on scene to both triage and provide emotional support to the survivors.

   Hero.

2. Death of partying in the USA:

   DT

   Derek Thompson@DKThomp · Jul 9

   New newsletter: The death of partying in the USA
   
   The latest American Time Use Survey came out last month. I wanted to follow up on @elcush's declaration that Americans need to party more. The new data confirms: America's social crisis is dire.
   
   - Between 2003 and 2024, the amount of time that Americans spent attending or hosting a social event declined by 50 percent.
   - Young people aged 15-to-24 spent 70 percent less time attending or hosting parties in 2024 than they did in 2003.
   
   More charts and analysis on the 50-year collapse of the social calendar in the link below.

   

   View on X

3. The forests are coming back: 36 countries, including India and China, gained more tress than they lost, between 2000-2020.

4. @levelsio speaks to John Collison

5. For a few days this summer, your days will be just a smidge shorter (WaPo)

   During the summer, the northern hemisphere is tilted toward the sun, which minimizes the difference in temperature between the equator and Earth’s poles. This smaller temperature variation slows down the jet stream — a narrow band of strong winds around 30,000 feet above us — and moves it northward.

1. John Oliver on AI Slop:

   John Oliver is always funny and often insightful.

2. Defeating a Virus That Killed Half a Billion People - The Plea. Timely and important. Trigger warning: Images of diseased people.

3. Operation Midnight Hammer: What a story.

4. Helicopter Money. Literally. Talk about going out in style.

5. Does CPS Investigate One Third of All Children in the US? Yes. But...

   The scale of CPS investigations in the US is staggering. Like all things, this trend began in the late 60s and early 70s as mandatory reporter laws expanded and caused massive growth in child maltreatment reports. Since the 90s, the number of reports has stayed pretty stable and the number of substantiated investigations and interventions has been falling.

   The CPS could probably scale back it’s interventions for cases of maltreatment that only involve neglect, especially those that only involve lack of supervision rather than physical neglect. Other tradeoffs between false positive and false negative investigations and interventions are more difficult to have a strong opinion on given the terrible outcomes on both sides of the trolley track.

   There are probably some available pareto improving moves. The most straightforward in my view would be increasing staffing and state capacity in family courts so that cases can be reviewed more accurately and without requiring months or years of effort and tens of thousands of dollars on the part of the parents.

6. Tech C.E.O. Pays $400,000 to Conduct the Toronto Symphony (NYT):

   After the performance, Cheung and the orchestra received a standing ovation. He said he was grateful for the opportunity.

7. Will AI Drive 20%+ Annual GDP Growth?:

   Steam, electricity, computers delivered enormous benefits while their economic importance shrank through success. AI will transform society profoundly. But 20% GDP growth? History says no.

8. Medical Superintelligence from Microsoft?:

   Microsoft's LLM is not only designed for multiple-choice questions, but also for real medical diagnoses in realistic scenarios – and outperforms even top models such as o3.

   In a large-scale study with over 300 case studies from the New England Journal of Medicine, the system achieved a diagnostic accuracy of over 80%. This is not only four times higher than the participating doctors, but also marks a qualitative leap: the AI was not only more accurate, but also made more economical decisions – with around 20% lower costs because it avoided unnecessary tests.

9. A Doctor Responds

   Microsoft claims their new AI framework diagnoses 4x better than doctors.

   I'm a medical doctor and I actually read the paper. Here's my perspective on why this is both impressive AND misleading ...

   ...

   Final thought: We don't need AI that can diagnose every rare disease. We need AI that knows when to diagnose and when to reassure. That's the real art of medicine.

10. Gymnastics Bot using LEGO SPIKE Prime. My weekend project.

A jumbo edition this week after a two-week break that was really not necessary.

1. At Secret Math Meeting, Researchers Struggle to Outsmart AI:

   On a weekend in mid-May, a clandestine mathematical conclave convened. Thirty of the world’s most renowned mathematicians traveled to Berkeley, Calif., with some coming from as far away as the U.K. The group’s members faced off in a showdown with a “reasoning” chatbot that was tasked with solving problems they had devised to test its mathematical mettle. After throwing professor-level questions at the bot for two days, the researchers were stunned to discover it was capable of answering some of the world’s hardest solvable problems. “I have colleagues who literally said these models are approaching mathematical genius,” says Ken Ono, a mathematician at the University of Virginia and a leader and judge at the meeting.

2. Hajj on Horseback (NYT):

   More than 1.5 million people traveled to Saudi Arabia this year for the hajj. Only three of them rode on horseback all the way from Spain, recreating the pilgrimage of Andalusian Muslims centuries ago and sharing their travels in the most modern way with big followings on social media.

3. Festivo, All Festivals, Everywhere (in Asia, for now): A calendar of all festivals.

4. Did She or Didn’t She? She Did, and She’ll Tell You Exactly How. (NYT): I am surprised it took so long to get here and not at all surprised who made it happen. Smartest family?

5. New York City’s Best Chefs Pick Their Favorite Restaurants (NYT)

6. Is it any surprise he won? (The Pope):

   As a bishop in Peru, Robert Prevost was often on the lookout for used cars that he could buy cheap and fix up himself for use in parishes around his diocese. With cars that were really broken down, he'd watch YouTube videos to learn how to fix them.

7. I used to be a high-performing robot and Maybe you’re not Actually Trying. "Agency" is having a moment online as seen in all the "You can just do things" memes. Interesting.

8. LLMs in Kitchen?: I made Tofu with peanut sauce today based on a receipe created by Claude. Honestly, the proportions were off but it wasn't half bad.

   are LLMs 10X-ing anyone else in the kitchen? I am so much more confident cooking when I can ask infinite dumb questions and brainstorm ideas, backup plans, substitutes, etc.

   in the last couple weeks I’ve made jerk chicken with coconut rice and mango salsa, chipotle turkey tacos, honey-lime sriracha chicken & sesame snap peas, skillet-blistered tomato and ravioli, and a fancy dessert. some of these things were just me looking in the fridge and saying “uhh this is what I have, help me turn it into something good” and so far they’ve all been great.

   I’m the stereotypical guy that knows how to make ~3 variations on a protein bowl and maybe ~2 nicer dishes for impressing girls when I was single and that’s about it.

   it’s fun feeling my agency expand and confidence quickly increase in this very practical domain. AI is great.

9. Andrej Karpathy's Keynote at YC. Self recommending as some say.

10. Kitty Olympics: AI Video is getting better.

11. Texan guy recites his electric bill like he’s a character in a William Faulkner novel. Hilarious.

12. AI is transforming Indian call centers.:

    For three years, Kartikeya Kumar hesitated before picking up the phone, anticipating another difficult conversation with another frustrated customer.

    The call center agent, now 29, had tried everything to eliminate what a colleague called the “Indian-ism” in his accent. He mimicked the dialogue from Marvel movies and belted out songs by Metallica and Pink Floyd. Relief finally arrived in the form of artificial intelligence.

13. Using AI Right Now: A Quick Guide by Ethan Mollick:

    Every few months I put together a guide on which AI system to use. Since I last wrote my guide, however, there has been a subtle but important shift in how the major AI products work. Increasingly, it isn't about the best model, it is about the best overall system for most people. The good news is that picking an AI is easier than ever and you have three excellent choices. The challenge is that these systems are getting really complex to understand. I am going to try and help a bit with both.

14. How cultures heal:

    Every digital platform is flooding the market with short videos, but the audience is now spending more time with longform video—and by a huge margin.

15. Flying on Frying Oil:

    The noodle hawkers in Kuala Lumpur are getting a nice little bump in profit but who is going stall to stall to check that the oil is in fact used? And what counts as used? One fry or two? Clever entrepreneurs have cut out the middleman. Virgin palm oil can be substituted for used cooking oil and voila! Sustainable aviation fuel is contributing to deforestation in Malaysia. Malaysia exports far more “used” cooking oil than oil that it uses. No surprise.

16. The search for MH370 has resumed. (NYT). What a mystery.

17. Rick Perry: I’m dedicating my life to fighting for a psychedelic drug. (NYT): Yes, Rick Perry.

    Marcus had lived with my wife, Anita, and me at the governor’s mansion after coming home from war. He was in constant pain from his injuries and dependent on opioids just to get through the day. He also drank heavily and used nicotine to cope with stress. Worse, he was carrying the burdens that come with war: grief, trauma and survivor’s guilt. For years, we tried to find him help. And for years, nothing worked. But after undergoing ibogaine treatment at a clinic in Mexico, Marcus came back changed. He no longer needed opioids. He hasn’t touched alcohol in years. He even quit chewing Copenhagen, a longtime habit.

18. When your father is a swimming coach

19. Alpha School:

    I first heard about Alpha in May 2024, and in the absence of randomized‑controlled clarity, I did what any moderately obsessive parent with three elementary-aged kids and an itch for data would do: I moved the family across the country to Austin for a year and ran the experiment myself (unfortunately, despite trying my best we never managed to have identical twins, so I stopped short of running a proper control group. My wife was less disappointed than I was).

20. Your semi-regular reminder to subscribe to Don't Worry About the Vase.

1. More kids are beating cancer. Improving the rest of their lives is next. (WaPo)

   When oncologists gave my 5-year-old daughter the all-clear from high-risk neuroblastoma in 2010, I breathed a sigh of relief.

   But her health needs were just beginning.

   Fifteen years later, the intense and often toxic treatments that saved Emily’s life have left her with a host of lifelong health challenges — hearing loss, stunted height, endocrine and kidney dysfunction, and permanent hair-thinning — issues no one talked about during her 18 months of cancer treatment.

   A good problem to have from one perspective but no less hard to deal with.

2. Questions about AI 2025:

   My working hypothesis is that human cognition improves markedly once pen is put to paper, and in some cases can continue to improve with extended writing (but note many prominent failures).

   This is correct and yet I do this less than I should. Time to commit to writing non-link posts weekly?

3. Exact Instructions Challenge (YouTube): Fun.

4. A ‘Mission: Impossible’ Fan Favorite Returns 3 Decades Later. Even He’s Surprised. (NYT)

   But according to the “Final Reckoning” director Christopher McQuarrie, Donloe made a big impact. In fact, he said in an interview, fans frequently asked him when he was going to bring the character back. For a long time, he didn’t understand why Donloe engendered such love, until he heard the question framed in a different way: “When is the team going to do right by what they did to Donloe?”

   “And I realized why William Donloe resonated,” McQuarrie said. “There was a perceived injustice, whether anybody could put their finger on it or not.”

5. The Rise of the Japanese Toilet (NYT):

   In 1982, a peculiar commercial aired on televisions across Japan.

   An actress in a pink floral dress and an updo drops paint on her hand and futilely attempts to wipe it off with toilet paper. She looks into the camera and asks: “Everyone, if your hands get dirty, you wash them, right?”

   “It’s the same for your bottom,” she continues. “Bottoms deserve to be washed, too.”

   Civilization on the march.

6. Zarna Garg Went From Stay-at-Home Mom to Stand-Up Comedian (NYT):

   After 16 years focusing on her husband, Shalabh, and her three children — Zoya, Brij and Veer — Ms. Garg re-entered the work force in 2019, but not to return to her erstwhile career as a personal injury lawyer. Instead, encouraged by her children, she started working the New York open-mic circuit and performing at Westside Comedy Club before headlining at Caroline’s on Broadway by 2020.

   In 2023, she talked her way into opening for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler on their Restless Leg Tour, and Prime Video aired her special “One in a Billion.” This spring, she made her film debut in the critically acclaimed rom-com “A Nice Indian Boy.” Her second special, “Practical People Win,” will air on Hulu in July, and she is developing a sitcom called “Zarna” with Mindy Kaling and Kevin Hart.

7. The Lightcone Podcast on Prompting (Video Podcast): I am hungry for more such reources.

8. Chattel Childhood: Trigger warning - fairly explicit start and parts.

   I don’t approve of the Simbari childrearing, not because I think the pain and disgust of what the children are forced to do is inherently bad, but because they are forced.

   To love someone skillfully is to pour fuel on their soul. It’s to see the world through their desire, to delight in it, and go “I desire you to get what you want.” It is the amplification of their will.

   The Simbari people are destroying the will of their children. My parents destroyed my will. And I think, quite seriously, that our current culture is likewise destroying the will of its children en masse. That’s what you do to property.

   Worth thinking about although largely I don't agree with this. Her will seems to be doing just fine.

   I think humans are are social animals and whether something traumatizes us or not is often (but not always) a function of the social context surrounding the event. What happens to the Simbari children (if it in fact, does happen. I have not verified or heard of this before) doesn't traumatize them because everyone around them considers it perfectly normal.

   In my mental model, the trauma happens, when you feel something shameful or otherwise different has happened to you and everyone looks at you different.

9. Artichokes: For the photos.

10. High cost of building in US:

    Zuckerburg's worth is 226 billion. The NY Subway builds tunnels at $4 bil. per mile. SF's BART builds subways at $2 bil. per mile. It's crazy that all of Zuckerberg's wealth would build just 8% of the current NYC subway network.

    Meanwhile in Paris cost $250 mil. per mile.

11. UFO?:

    The object was precognitive in behavior. The radar data from the SPY-1B system showed that the Tic Tac descended from 28,000 feet to sea level in 0.78 seconds, a feat requiring acceleration up to 5,880 Gs. But here's what no one focuses on: that data was correlated by both radar and infrared, meaning this was not a sensor glitch or hallucination...it was a multi-spectrum-confirmed, real-world event. And what’s worse? The object decelerated to a dead stop… mid-air. Bonkers!

A long list today because this week two of my top sources were on fire - MR and NYT.

1. My Parents Expected to Be Retired. Instead, They Are Raising My Sister’s Kids. (NYT): Beautiful, heartbreaking and uplifting.

2. Still booting after all these years: The people stuck using ancient Windows computers: None of the above. Well... maybe heartbreaking. No need to click the link though, the title says it all.

3. Measles cases in Europe, the Americas skyrocket: This is infuriating for two reasons. The second reason is that you wouldn't know it from reading most news that Europe has 10x the cases of USA. NYT I can understand, but I had to scroll down 3 pages on BBC website, after searching for "measles" to find a story about something other than RFK Jr. and Texas moms.

4. Your Fingers Wrinkle in the Same Pattern Every Time After Long Exposure to Water: Heh. Also apparently they wrinkle to improve underwater grip, not because the skin expands by absorbing water, which would have been hypothesis.

5. How Miami Schools Are Leading 100,000 Students Into the A.I. Future (NYT)

6. 5 weeks ago, someone buried a 22 lb chest with $10,000 of prizes (half in gold), somewhere in San Francisco. No one has found it yet. This is the only clue. It was found within a day of this post, so clearly the only thing holding back the search was the number of eyes looking. How many other problems is this true for?

7. "One of main goals in life has been to make my parents proud". 92% in Iraq, 78% in India. I remember realizing sometime in my early 30s that my parents didn't know the hierarchy of success in my field. As far as they were concerned I was already successful after college and any "actual" success wouldn't register with them. I felt the void in my movtivation for quite some time. Having your own kids helps with the transition.

8. AI & Critical Thinking:

   An interviewer just asked me what skills AI will make more important. My response? Critical thinking skills.

   This is because in the past there was value in creating large quantities of information. That is now costless. The new currency is how to generate, assimilate, interpret, and make that large amount of information actionable.

   The next question then becomes how do we teach, and improve our own, critical thinking skills? I discuss that in a recent study where I create a critical thinking skills hierarchy.

9. The Agentic Web and Original Sin: I have been wondering about this problem for a while - who puts up the content for the LLMs to train on if everyone gets their answers from the chatbots and doesn't visit websites anymore.

   The problem, as both I and Patel noted, is that this ecosystem depends on humans seeing those webpages, not impersonal agents impervious to advertising, which destroys the economics of ad-supported content sites, which, in the long run, dries up the supply of new content for AI.

   A potential solution:

   First, the protocol layer should have a mechanism for payments via digital currency, i.e. stablecoins. Second, AI providers like ChatGPT should build an auction mechanism that pays out content sources based on the frequency with which they are cited in AI answers. The result would be a new universe of creators who will be incentivized to produce high quality content that is more likely to be useful to AI, competing in a marketplace a la the open web; indeed, this would be the new open web, but one that operates at even greater scale than the current web given the fact that human attention is a scarce resource, while the number of potential agents is infinite.

10. Cargo Ship Crashed Into Man’s Yard After Crewman Fell Asleep, Police Say (NYT)

11. The 22 Best Pizza Places in New York Right Now (NYT)

12. New Studies Dismiss Signs of Life on Distant Planet (NYT): Dang.

13. SEO for AI: A look at Generative Engine Optimization

14. The best bookstore in NYC, and then some

15. They’re 15. Wait Until You Read Their Newspaper. (NYT):

    “We still haven’t done hot dogs,” Teddy said. Billy agreed: Hot dogs should be an editorial priority.

    and

“We were still very young; we had no idea what we were doing,” said Billy, a junior varsity quarterback whose hair was tousled into a cruciferous mop.

16. Know hope!

    …Use of digital technologies was associated with reduced risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.35–0.52) and reduced time-dependent rates of cognitive decline (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.66–0.84). Effects remained significant when accounting for demographic, socioeconomic, health and cognitive reserve proxies.

    Paper here.

17. Putting Claude 4 Opus in an open playground to chat with itself led to it diving into philosophical explorations of consciousness, self-awareness, and by 30 turns it eventually started using Sanskrit: Can't wait till nationalist politicians from my home state get their hands on this. Sanskrit!

18. Toronto burger shop called Good Fortune Burger renamed its menu items to sound like office supplies, helping remote workers potentially expense meals through work accounts. The "basic steel stapler" and "braided HDMI cord” are popular. : As a reply points out this doesn't make sense because the order is still from a place called Good Fortune Burger.

19. Who Benefits from Surge Pricing?:

    What are the welfare effects of surge pricing? Using Uber data, I develop an empirical model of spatial equilibrium composed of demand, supply, and matching. I find that surge pricing raises total welfare, benefitting riders but hurting drivers.

    Welfare effects differ substantially across sides of the market: rider surplus increases by 3.57% of gross revenue, whereas driver surplus and the platform’s current profits decrease by 0.98% and 0.50% of gross revenue, respectively.

    This doesn't make sense. If it hurts the platform or the drivers, why would they do it?

    After dropping the pearl of wisdom above, I decided to actually read the paper. In the first two pages I found this:

Uber’s current profits decrease by 0.50% of gross revenue. This probably does not mean that Uber is hurt, but rather that it is willing to forgo current profits to increase rider surplus—the right choice if it believes that long-run shareholder value is more closely tied to rider surplus and customer retention than to current profits.

Makes sense. After this my eyes glazed over and I dropped the paper in Claude and asked it why drivers would participate in this. Here's what it says: 

The paper acknowledges this is the more problematic finding. "My findings suggest that drivers might have good reason to complain. Their hourly earnings are not much higher than the minimum wage, so even the small effects I find might be a concern."

However, drivers may not have full information about the counterfactual (uniform pricing), and many drivers are part-time workers using Uber for supplemental income rather than as their primary employment.

1. How to make money betting on the new Pope: Great discussion of the betting process. Still plenty of luck involved but a reminder that there is plenty of "alpha" out there if you look in the right place. Maybe I should create a hashtag for these stories. #alpha

   A few minutes later, my jaw dropped as Prevost -- the guy I had just amasssed shares in at 200-1 like 20 minutes earlier-- walked out onto the balcony as Pope.

2. On the NBA and economic theory: Solving the problem of late season tanking to get a shot at the draft lottery in the NBA. Quite simple when you think about it.

   Optimal mechanism: get points for each loss. In game 1, a loss is worth 1 Draft Point. As season continues, loss is worth less, becoming negative late. Draft position based on Draft Points. Everyone wants to win late in season. Early season used to handicap truly bad teams.

3. Populism is not popular. Success is popular.:

   And Singapore is well run precisely because it adopts “unpopular” technocratic policies like zero tariffs, forced saving, and congestion pricing.

   And the PAP keeps getting re-elected, not despite, but because of those unpopular policies. Playing the long game, succesfully, since 1965.

4. Harvard Paid $27 for a Copy of Magna Carta. Surprise! It’s an Original.: To be fair it was $27 in 1946 dollars, but still. #alpha

   Professor Carpenter was at home in Blackheath, south east London, plowing his way through Harvard Law School’s digital images as research for a book when he opened a file named HLS MS 172 — the catalog name for Harvard Law School Manuscript 172.

   “I get down to 172 and it’s a single parchment sheet of Magna Carta,” he said. “And I think ‘Oh my god, this looks to me for all the world — because I read it — like an original.’”

   Professor Carpenter emailed Professor Vincent, who was, at the time, at work in a library in Brussels. “David sent it with a message saying, ‘What do you think that is?’” said Professor Vincent. “I wrote back within seconds, saying, ‘You and I both know what that is!’”

   I would not have answered like that.

A light week on links as it was a heavy week in life.

1. You Sent the Message. But Did You Write It?: Hilarious.

   Chatcident: When someone slips and pastes the prompt into the chat or email instead of the polished AI output – exposing the wizard behind the curtain.

2. Points for kills: How Ukraine is using video game incentives to slay more Russians:

   Ukraine's military is turning to incentive schemes used in video games to spur its soldiers to kill more Russian troops and destroy their equipment.

   The program — called Army of Drones bonus — rewards soldiers with points if they upload videos proving their drones have hit Russian targets. It will soon be integrated with a new online marketplace called Brave 1 Market, which will allow troops to convert those points into new equipment for their units.

3. How far are you from India, measured in units of India?: I really need to update the site to show Tweets inline or at least display images. Hope Claude is up to the task.

4. This Is the Moment for Mexican Indian Food to Flourish (NYT): A marriage made in heaven. Literally.

   A small, close-knit Mexican Indian American community formed outside Sacramento when a generation of Punjabi Sikh and Muslim men immigrated from India to find work as farmers and loggers beginning in the late 1800s. After the Immigration Act of 1917 made it near impossible for Indian women to immigrate, hundreds of these men married Mexican women. New kinds of cooking emerged from their idiosyncratic home kitchens and a handful of restaurants the families went on to run.

5. Lego built full-size F1 cars for the Miami GP drivers’ parade.

   “That was the most fun drivers’ parade we’ve ever had,” Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton said. “Some dirty driving from this one here (Gasly)! That was great fun.”

   “They’ll have to sweep the track, there’s quite a bit of Lego debris on the track,” Max Verstappen said. “A bit different, that’s for sure!”

6. Tim Urban on AI. In 2015.: Really need to add the Tweet feature.

7. Unparalleled Misalignments: I think I have shared this before but some things are worth sharing twice.

   This is a list of Unparalleled Misalignments, pairs of non-synonymous phrases where the words in one phrase are each synonyms of the words in the other.

   Butt dial // Booty call

   Father figure // Dad bod

   Local girl // Near miss

8. Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class

9. Pro-Prompting: A master in action. Prompt used for GeoGuessr by Kelsey Tuoc, in the last week's link on AI playing GeoGuessr.

10. Boy Accidentally Orders 70,000 Lollipops on Amazon. Panic Ensues. (NYT) :

On Sunday morning, as Holly LaFavers was preparing to go to church, a delivery worker dropped off a 25-pound box of lollipops in front of her apartment building in Lexington, Ky.

And another. And then another. Soon, 22 boxes of 50,600 lollipops were stacked five boxes high in two walls of Dum-Dums. That was when Ms. LaFavers heard what no parent wants to hear: Her child had unwittingly placed a massive online order.

“Mom, my suckers are here!” said her son, Liam, who had gone outside to ride his scooter.

“I panicked,” Ms. LaFavers, 46, said. “I was hysterical.”

1. How to make hard choices (YouTube): A great video and especially personally relevant right now.

2. Just how good is O3 at playing GeoGuessr: Apparently very good. It still makes errors of course, but I was amazed at how close it got with very limited clues. Worth repeating this bit from last weeks link:

   It’s also deeply dystopian. Technology can identify locations from photographs now. It’s vitally important that people understand how easy this is—if you have any reason at all to be concerned about your safety, you need to know that any photo you share—even a photo as bland as my example above—could be used to identify your location.

3. Universal Antivenom May Grow Out of Man Who Let Snakes Bite Him 200 Times (NYT):

   The video is just under two and a half minutes long. A slim man with close-cropped hair walks into a room, pulls a long black mamba — whose venom can kill within an hour — from a crate and allows it to bite his left arm. Immediately after, he lets a taipan from Papua New Guinea bite his right arm. “Thanks for watching,” he calmly tells the camera, his left arm bleeding, and then exits.

   Over nearly 18 years, the man, Tim Friede, 57, injected himself with more than 650 carefully calibrated, escalating doses of venom to build his immunity to 16 deadly snake species. He also allowed the snakes — mostly one at a time, but sometimes two, as in the video — to sink their sharp fangs into him about 200 times.

4. Ken Rogoff on Conversations with Tyler: Great discussion on so many different topics - China, Pakistan, US, Chess. I found it very insightful.

5. Macro Utopia: Economics heavy list today but I have found Scott Sumner to have the most useful and probably most accurate predictions about macro.

A lot of NYT links today. For all its flaws, of which there might be many, the NYT is incomparable.

1. Good advice from Ross Douthat:

   Have the child. Practice the religion. Found the school. Support the local theater, the museum, the opera or concert hall, even if you can see it all on YouTube. Pick up the paintbrush, the ball, the instrument. Learn the language — even if there’s an app for it. Learn to drive, even if you think soon Waymo or Tesla will drive for you. Put up headstones, don’t just burn your dead. Sit with the child, open the book, and read.

2. Or play a boardgame?:

   New York can be expensive, overwhelming and intimidating, and sometimes it is hard for people to connect. A martini can cost $25 in a bar that’s too noisy for conversation, and raucous nightclubs aren’t for everyone. So a free, monthly B.Y.O.B. (bring your own board game) night in an office building food court has become a big hit.

   In addition to Werewolf, people were playing classics, like chess and mahjong, but also relatively newer games, including Catan, Splendor, Hues and Cues, Saboteur, Nertz, Wavelength, Blokus and Camel Up.

   Board game events and clubs have grown in popularity in recent years — in New York and across the country. This one is organized by Richard Ye, a 24-year-old who works in finance. He bills the event as New York City’s largest board game meet-up, and a video of Mr. Ye celebrating his March gathering — where 500 people were in attendance — was widely shared on social media.

   File another one under #youcanjustdothings.

3. What I Didn’t Know About the Egg Industry Horrified Me: As a life-long vegetarian who can't even imagine turning vegan, I try to avoid evangelizing about what people should eat. Despite the click-baity headline and not the most objective tone, the scientific brekthrough here is worth cheering.

   Called in ovo sexing, it determines the sex of the chick embryo long before it hatches, allowing the producers to get rid of the male eggs and hatch only the females.

   This is important because:

   I had no idea that while the Ladies enjoyed shelter and sunshine, fresh bugs and freedom, their newborn brothers faced a gruesome fate shared by 6.5 billion male chicks around the world each year. These male birds can’t lay eggs but also aren’t raised for meat. Because they come from egg-laying breeds, they don’t grow big or fast enough to be used for food. So they are ground up alive or gassed to death.

4. Questions about the Future of AI by Dwarkesh Patel: I haven't read most of this but what I have is great.

5. Another important question about AI by Radek Sienkiewicz : Why do AI company logos look like buttholes? Click the link. They really do.

6. In a year will this still make news?:

   Australian Radio Network (ARN), the media company behind KIIS, as well as Gold and iHeart, used an AI-generated female Asian host to broadcast 4 hours of midweek radio, without disclosing it.

   This probably still will:

   “It seems very odd that CADA hired a new ethnically-diverse woman to their youth station and then just forgot to tell anyone.”

   It’s notable because ARN is the whitest thing in media since the Night King and his throng of walkers on Game of Thrones. The network is also home of Australia’s most expensive, complained about and censured radio show, Kyle and Jackie O.

7. Penn Station’s Not-So-Secret Other Life: The People’s Dance Studio:

   “Penn Station is first and foremost a transportation hub,” said Aaron Donovan, the deputy communications director for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. “But you know, as long as folks abide by the rules and regulations that govern the use of the space and don’t block platforms or interfere with passenger flows, we generally don’t have any problem with what’s going on.”

8. Watching o3 guess a photo’s location is surreal, dystopian and wildly entertaining by Simon Willison:

   First, this is really fun. Watching the model’s thought process as it churns through the photo, pans and zooms and discusses different theories about where it could be is wildly entertaining. It’s like living in an episode of CSI.

   It’s also deeply dystopian. Technology can identify locations from photographs now. It’s vitally important that people understand how easy this is—if you have any reason at all to be concerned about your safety, you need to know that any photo you share—even a photo as bland as my example above—could be used to identify your location.

1. How "The Joker" Took Down The Texas Lottery (WSJ Paywall): What a story. There is plenty of alpha out there, if you know where and how to look. Also, brute force is underrated. Sadly behind a paywall and there's lot more to it than the gist below:

   In Texas, as in many states, most people who play the lottery go to a store with a machine, choose numbers, then walk away with a ticket. Back in 2023, Texas also allowed online lottery-ticket vendors to set up shops to print tickets for their customers.

   Marantelli’s team recruited one such seller, struggling startup Lottery.com, to help with the logistics of buying and printing the millions of tickets. Like all lotto retailers, it would collect a 5% sales commission. The Texas Lottery Commission allowed dozens of the terminals that print tickets to be delivered to the four workshops set up by the team.

   That April 19, the commission announced that there had been no winner in that day’s drawing. The next drawing, with an even larger pot, would be three days later, on a Saturday. The group sprang into action.

   The printing operation ran day and night. The team had converted each number combination into a QR code. Crew members scanned the codes into the terminals using their phones, then scrambled to organize all the tickets in boxes such that they could easily locate the winning numbers.

   The game called for picking six numbers from 1 to 54. For a pro gambler, some sets of numbers—such as 1,2,3,4,5,6—aren’t worth picking because so many other players choose them, which would split the pot. Marantelli’s operation bought 99.3% of the possibilities.

   Money moved to Lottery.com from Ranogajec’s accounts—held under the name John Wilson—in the Isle of Man, a tax haven off the U.K. coast, taking a circuitous route via an escrow account at a Detroit law firm, according to people familiar with the transfers and bank statements reviewed by the Journal.

   The crew hit the jackpot that Saturday. One of their tickets was the sole winner.

2. The Moon Should Be a Computer: Love the ambition. So much fun to read.

   There are other reasons to build a Moon computer, including to avoid the regulatory hurdles to build the energy centers needed to power centralized AI clusters and as a sovereignty play in the increasingly fraught geopolitical game on the road to developing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—a system with the ability to solve virtually any cognitive task a human can. We of, course, don’t have to mine the Moon just to replicate a single human mind, but we might have to do so to power superintelligence, same in kind but vastly superior to our own.

   How bad are these regulations exactly?

3. Stevens: a hackable AI assistant via Simon Willison: So many cool projects, so little time.

   The assistant is called Stevens, named after the butler in the great Ishiguro novel Remains of the Day. Every morning it sends a brief to me and my wife via Telegram, including our calendar schedules for the day, a preview of the weather forecast, any postal mail or packages we’re expected to receive, and any reminders we’ve asked it to keep track of. All written up nice and formally, just like you’d expect from a proper butler.

   Beyond the daily brief, we can communicate with Stevens on-demand—we can forward an email with some important info, or just leave a reminder or ask a question via Telegram chat.

4. Every: A great site focused on AI related stories.

5. Obvious travel advice:

   Despite being only 0.3% of the world’s population, Australians seem to make up 10% of overseas visitors everywhere on the planet. Do not be disturbed by this well-known optical illusion.

1. Digital hygiene by Andrej Karpathy: I discovered this just a little late to include in the last weeks post, where it would have been the perfect companion piece along with this one on getting phished.

   I practice some of these recommendations already and wholeheartedly recommend the password manager, for example. I use Dashlane, which is about $60 a year if you want to sync across devices, but there are many free tools out there. Bitwarden offers all the essential features, including syncing across devices, for free and the paid versions are cheaper too.

   I plan to explore his solutions for credit cards (privacy.com) this weekend. Work-life separation is also great advice, which I did not follow in the past but am doing at my new(ish) job.

2. Flight to unkown destinations. Would you take one? Doesn't seem like a big deal to me. As a reply to the tweet says, unlikely they will put you in a war zone, so if it is in Schengen, how bad could it be? I am probably clueless...

   Scandinavian Airlines are running “unknown” destination flights.

   You buy a ticket and board the plane. Then you find out where you are going.

   Would you do it?

3. Kim Shin-jo, 82, Failed North Korean Assassin, Dies as Pastor in the South (NYT Paywall) : What a story and what a life! And this story is straight out of hollywood, but without the happy ending.

4. Getting the Most from Deep Research Models:

   After a fair bit of experimentation, I've built a Claude project that handles all the repeatable high-effort prompt engineering (like source selection) for you. It asks for your preferences, clarifies what you need, and produces a well-structured prompt that you can then feed into any DR model.

5. Two high-value excerpts from John Authers Bloomberg newsletters:

   Here follows a crowd-sourced literary tip. I asked yesterday for recommendations on great detective franchises for easy reading in stressful times, and you delivered. I’ve had so many suggestions that this will need to come in installments.

   To start, the name you’ve recommended most often, and with greatest enthusiasm, is Michael Connelly and his Harry Bosch series (the detective loves jazz and lives in the LA hills).

   Other entrants includes the Dave Robicheaux series by James Lee Burke (set in Louisiana and starting with The Neon Rain), Arnaldur Indridason’s “really good, bleak Icelandic stuff” (try Jar City first). Volker Kutscher’s Babylon Berlin series, set in Weimar Germany. Robert van Gulik’s Judge Dee stories (written some decades ago and set in Ancient China — try Willow Pattern). Also the Martin Beck books set in 1960-70s Sweden and written over 10 years by Maj Sjowall and Per Wahloo — a husband and wife team, and godparents of Scandinavian noir (Roseanna is recommended) and the Harry Hole books by Jo Nesbo, set in Norway.

   To be clear, I didn’t mention Raymond Chandler’s Marlowe books because I’ve already read all of them. If you’ve never dipped into Chandler, you have a treat in store — perhaps start with The Big Sleep. And as more than one of you said Connelly was as good as Chandler, I definitely want to read one of his. I’ll have plenty more suggestions tomorrow. Please, if you have any more to recommend, let me know.

   Herewith another installment in our crowd-sourced tour of great detective fiction franchises. You might want to try: Abir Mukherjee’s Wyndham and Banerjee series is set in India under the British Raj; the Canadian writer Eric Wright’s John Salter series, set in Toronto; Philip Kerr’s Bernie Gunther series, set in Nazi Germany; the Whitstable Pearl mysteries by Julie Wassmer (who used to be a scriptwriter for Eastenders so there are plenty of cliffhangers); Andrea Camilleri’s Inspector Montalbano series, featuring Sicily and plenty of great food; and Death of a Red Heroine, the first of the Inspector Chen series by Qiu Xiaolong in contemporary Shanghai. This comes highly recommended by Andy Rothman of Sinology, long one of my favorite guides to all things China, and by remarkable coincidence I had picked up a copy of this book from a neighborhood bookshelf earlier this week. So that’s what I’ll read next. More detectives next week.

6. Drew Breunig via Simon Willison:

   The first generation of AI-powered products (often called “AI Wrapper” apps, because they “just” are wrapped around an LLM API) were quickly brought to market by small teams of engineers, picking off the low-hanging problems. But today, I’m seeing teams of domain experts wading into the field, hiring a programmer or two to handle the implementation, while the experts themselves provide the prompts, data labeling, and evaluations.

   For these companies, the coding is commodified but the domain expertise is the differentiator.

7. S Anand: A great website from a college senior. On campus he was know as Stud Anand.

1. Myanmar Earthquake passing through Europe: I experienced the shaking in Bangkok. First, I thought I was getting dizzy before the realization struck. It was kind of disorienting walking down the stairs of the building, periodically feeling dizzy. It didn't feel real, almost as if it was just a drill or a joke.

2. AI vs. Human: Odysseus Translation: I, too, preferred the AI version. Even if you don't agree with the ranking, it is clearly good enough.

3. Tough out there for kids: Hard to understand the rejection ratio. I was originally going to link to a thread by a university professor with experience in admissions, critiquing his personal essay but she has locked her account now, I assume after it went viral. If I recall correctly, she felt his essay did not show the right attitude for various reasons. Many on twitter (and I) disagreed but even if you agree with her take, the essay highlights a very impressive person (and seems factually accurate). So I struggle to understand the rejection ratio.

4. If he can fall for a phishing attack, so can you and they are only going to get more sophisticated. Be careful out there and step up your safety protocols.

5. AI 2027: I have yet to fully read this but it is a lot more "optimistic" on AI progress than I am right now and at least somewhat scary.

1. Unintentionally hilarious:

   The Danish Defense Ministry also plans to fund two more dogsled teams to protect the 375,000-square-mile Northeast Greenland National Park, the largest in the world. These would be the hardcore Sirius patrols, viewed by the Danes as the Navy SEALs of the Arctic, which began operations during World War II.

   Two. Not one.

2. How to vibe code?: A fairly decent app and when you see his conversations with ChatGPT, its mostly just plain english. Does a programming background help. Sure, but you can go quite far without any. Here are the actual conversations:

   a. Starting the app

   b. Enhancements

   c. More enhancements

   d. Deploy to iPhone

   e. The actual App

3. Why we ended up homeschooling:

   TL;DR: homeschooling makes it much easier to individualize education, which makes it more efficient and meaningful.

4. Tokyo vs. Rest of Japan:

   This is called the sponge city effect in my little world of demographics. In a declining region we often see the biggest city soaking up population since jobs and health services etc cluster in a single area rather than spreading out. Japan has been shrinking for three decades while Tokyo happily grows.

5. How Much Would You Need to be Paid to Live on a Deserted Island for 1.5 Years and Do Nothing but Kill Seals?: What it says on the label.

6. Best take:

   people are rightfully upset about this atlantic story because it gets at a truly alarming issue: being added to large, ongoing group texts without consent

   😂

7. True that!:

   Your brain will invent fake problems for you if you don't go out and find real ones

8. I don't know if this is the right path, but its the right destination

1. The Kids Are Not All Right via MR: Reminder that humans, often the smartest humans, can believe anything. Wonder how much of the coventional wisdom today falls in this category.

   Two weeks after his birth, Jeffrey’s health took a turn for the worse: He developed a heart defect common in premature infants – patent ductus arteriosus, or PDA. Jeffrey was scheduled for open-heart surgery and transferred to the nearest children’s hospital.

   In those days, surgery for PDA was invasive. Holes were cut on either side of Jeffrey’s tiny neck and chest to insert a catheter into his jugular vein. His little body was opened from breastbone to backbone, his flesh lifted aside, ribs pried apart, and a blood vessel near his heart tied off, and then all the tissues were stitched back together.

   Baby Jeffrey felt everything – every incision, every internal repair, every stitch. The medical team had not given their fragile patient any drugs, any comfort, anything to protect him from the excruciating pain of open-heart surgery – just a paralyzing agent to keep him still during the procedure.

   Five weeks later, Jeffrey passed away.

   In the days before her child’s death, Jill Lawson learned a shocking fact: Anesthetizing babies for surgery was not common practice. After Jeffrey died, Lawson called his doctor for reassurance. Surely, she thought, her child had been given something for the pain.

   “The anesthesiologist informed me that she had not used any anesthesia or analgesia on Jeffrey,” Lawson wrote in an account of her son’s experience. The doctor told the grieving mother it hadn’t even occurred to her to do so because it had never been demonstrated that babies can feel pain.

2. @peelraja via MR:

   The paradox of India:

   Punjab is over 60% vegetarian, but Tandoori chicken and butter chicken are its most popular dishes outside the state.

   Tamil Nadu is less than 1% vegetarian, but its "pure veg" idly, dosa, sambhar, pongal, etc are its most popular dishes outside the state.

3. The Seneca via Daring Fireball:

   The Seneca is my middle finger to the aesthetic homogeneity and economic over-optimization of 21st century life.

   A keyboard for the low, low price of $3,600. Yes, a computer keyboard. Yes, US$. Although to be fair, it is not $3,600. Its "from $3,600".

4. My Thoughts on the Future of "AI" via Simon Willison:

   I have very wide error bars on the potential future of large language models, and I think you should too.

   Specifically, I wouldn't be surprised if, in three to five years, language models are capable of performing most (all?) cognitive economically-useful tasks beyond the level of human experts.

   And I also wouldn't be surprised if, in five years, the best models we have are better than the ones we have today, but only in “normal” ways where costs continue to decrease considerably and capabilities continue to get better but there's no fundamental paradigm shift that upends the world order.

5. The Anatomy of Marital Happiness via MR:

   Since 1972, the General Social Survey has periodically asked whether people are happy with Yes, Maybe or No type answers. Here I use a net “happiness” measure, which is percentage Yes less percentage No with Maybe treated as zero.

   Average happiness is around +20 on this scale for all respondents from 1972 to the last pre-pandemic survey (2018). However, there is a wide gap of around 30 points between married and unmarried respondents.

   This “marital premium” is this paper’s subject. I describe how this premium varies across and within population groups. These include standard socio demographics (age, sex, race education, income) and more. I find little variety and thereby surface a notable regularity in US socio demography: there is a substantial marital premium for every group and subgroup I analyze, and this premium is usually close to the overall 30-point average.

   This holds not just for standard characteristics but also for those directly related to marriage like children and sex (and sex preference). I also find a “cohabitation premium”, but it is much smaller (10 points) than the marital premium. The analysis is mainly visual, and there is inevitably some interesting variety across seventeen figures, such as a 5-point increase in recent years.

1. Australian man survives 100 days with artificial heart in world-first success via Nico McCarty:

   An Australian man with heart failure has become the first person in the world to walk out of a hospital with a total artificial heart implant.

   The Australian researchers and doctors behind the operation announced on Wednesday that the implant had been an “unmitigated clinical success” after the man lived with the device for more than 100 days before receiving a donor heart transplant in early March.

   The BiVACOR total artificial heart, invented by Queensland-born Dr Daniel Timms, is the world’s first implantable rotary blood pump that can act as a complete replacement for a human heart, using magnetic levitation technology to replicate the natural blood flow of a healthy heart.

2. Inflation Expectations by Political Party Affiliation: Entry #3692 in "Politics makes you stupid".

3. Broccoli, the Man – and Vegetable – Behind the Bond Franchise: What a story.

4. The shift from a mindset of scarcity to one of abundance is overdue.(NYT Paywall) The article itself has a strong partisan tone. I hope the book is different.

   In the time California has spent failing to complete its 500-mile high-speed rail system, China has built more than 23,000 miles of high-speed rail. China does not spend years debating with judges over whether it needs to move a storage facility. That power leads to abuse and imperiousness. It also leads to trains.

   I do not want America to become China. But I do want it to be able to build trains.

5. Some Vegans Were Harmed in the Watching of This Movie (NYT Paywall): Even as a vegetarian, this seems over the top.

   “People might think a glass of milk is innocuous,” she said. “It’s not. It’s full of violence.”

6. In Search of a Boring Business (NYT Paywall):

   On BizBuySell, the popular listings site where the Rizzos found the Smiths, “corporate refugees” ditching the 9-to-5 have surged to 42 percent of buyers, roughly double the 2021 figure. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of American small businesses are owned by people 65 and older, making the Smiths part of a “silver tsunami” of sellers.

7. Cognitive security is now as important as basic literacy: Must read link of the week. Between this stuff and use of AI in scams, I am more than a little scared.

8. Is this good or bad? Policy can be hard.

1. James Harrison: The Man Who Saved 2.4 Million Babies: Hall of Fame.
2. Coincidentally, this week both Tyler Cowen and Karthik S shared memories of playing card games as kids. And then today my sister mentioned my younger newphew had started playing Dungeons and Dragons recently. We have played card games and board games with our boys, especially during COVID and it was fun. Clearly we should do more of this.
3. Another entry to the hall of fame. A different hall, sure, but come one, clearly this guy is a legend.
4. A different way of learning math? Via Zvi, who belongs in a third hall. Can't fault him for lacking ambition but perhaps this is the rare tweet that should have been an article.
5. A Cheeto Shaped Like the Pokemon Charizard Sells for Nearly $90,000. NYT Paywall but do you really need to read anything else?
6. Honey on a razor blade: Something about the actual visualization struck a chord with me.

1. A.I. and Vibecoding Helped Me Create My Own Software: The limitation here is my imagination.

2. Humanoid Robots are coming. Wild dogs will not stop me from paying good money for a bot that can iron and fold clothes.

3. First world problem?: Nebraska Man Struggles to Change Daughter’s Name From ‘Unakite Thirteen Hotel’. For two years.

4. Michelle Trachtenberg: I did not watch Buffy or any of her other work but it is always depressing to see so many child celebrities die early deaths. This job is hazardous. To be clear cause of death is not known and I do not want to speculate.

   What struck me was this bit in the report:

   In a 2012 interview with Complex magazine, she recalled a scene in the 2006 film “Beautiful Ohio,” starring William Hurt and Rita Wilson, that featured her “naked tush.” It was, she said, “probably one of the most horrendous moments of my life.”

   “It would take an army — or Martin Scorsese — to ever get me naked again,” she added.

1. 50 years of Travel Tips: Some great tips.

   For the best travel experiences you need either a lot of money, or a lot of time. Of the two modes, it is far better to have more time than money. Although it tries, money cannot buy what time delivers. You have enough time to attend the rare festival, to learn some new words, to understand what the real prices are, to wait out the weather, or to get to that place that takes a week in a jeep. Time is the one resource you can give yourself, so take advantage of this if you are young without money.

2. 100% HIV Prevention:

   ...we now have evidence that in real-world use it can do something that has never been seen before: twice-yearly injections in thousands of female trial volunteers in high-risk areas (South Africa and Uganda) showed a one hundred per cent prevention rate of HIV infection.

3. Stable Systems (X):

   I don’t think a lot of people appreciate how much of their overall lifestyle and relative certainty is backstopped by a steady, boring stability of systems they don’t understand or even realize exist.

4. AI or No I (X):

   Me using LLMs for fun little personal projects: wow this thing is such a genius why do we even need humans anymore.

   Me trying to deploy LLMs in messy real-world environments: why is this thing so unbelievably stupid and dumb.

   This fits with my experience. But also for doing "real" work, prompt engineering matters. Giving the right instructions in the right order does make a difference.

   See more scepticism in this thread. Along with some of the comments I am hearing Satya Nadella made in his podcast with Dwarkesh, I wonder if we are seeing a vibe shift on AI?

5. My LLM codegen workflow atm(via):

   I have been building so many small products using LLMs. It has been fun, and useful. However, there are pitfalls that can waste so much time. A while back a friend asked me how I was using LLMs to write software. I thought “oh boy. how much time do you have!” and thus this post.

Again, for real work, prompt engineering matters.

6. Consensus projections on AI (X):

   I think Grok 3 came in right at expectations, so I don't think there is much to update in terms of consensus projections on AI: still accelerating development, speed is a moat, compute still matters, no obvious secret sauce to making a frontier model if you have talent & chips.

7. Three Observations: Obligatory link to every Sam Altman post.

   Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine. There is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself, and if we change that, the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all.

1. Translating with LLMs: A fantastic guide from a professional translator on how he is using LLMs to do his job better.

   For my day to day queries, I simply ask Claude, like I would ask a colleague or a friend and it just works. But for professional work, correctly prompting the LLMs improves the quality of output significantly. I hope to find (and create) more such examples.

2. Wisdom:

3. Wisdom II: A lot of AI cheerleading takes this form. Yes, you can just do things. I have also thought and posted along those lines. But as Gergely points out, the hard thing in building a payment system is not the code - its fraud, AML, KYC, tax, reporting, reconcilliation...

   That is true for most other hard things too. The hard thing in pharma is not finding the compound but getting the trials and approvals done. The hard thing in politics in not the manifesto but the consensus.

4. Tarriffs and Modern Supply Chains: Tarriffs are more disruptive than I thought.

5. How My Dad Reconciled His God and His Gay Son: Beautiful.

   This is me with my dad, Bill White. For decades, he has been an evangelical pastor. Before I was born, he wrote a letter to my future wife. He didn’t know what we both do now: that I’m gay. When I came out nearly 16 years later, it shook his faith and fractured his church. But it never separated us. I wanted to understand how. So I read his journals.

6. Strongly endorse:

   One of the reasons making things is satisfying is that it's a concrete demonstration of the notion that you can have some amount of control over your environment and circumstances. Passive media consumption is the opposite of that.

7. Should you value the life of your brother more than that of a stranger?:

   But again, this is a distraction from any real issue! Oh, you should value the life of your brother more than a stranger? You don’t say? I’m hearing this for the first time! Now let’s kill five million foreign children to fund one sixth of a broadband boondoggle.

   I am happy to “concede” that if you face a choice between saving a stranger and saving your brother, save your brother! Or your cousin, or your great-uncle, or your seven-times-great-grand-nephew-twice-removed. I’ll “concede” all of this, immediately, because it’s all fake; none of your relatives were ever in any danger. The only point of this whole style of philosophical discussion is so that you can sound wise as you say “Ah, but is not saving your brother more important than saving a complete stranger?” then sentence five million strangers to death for basically no benefit while your brother continues to be a successful real estate agent in Des Moines.

   When will I be able to write so well?

Most books should have been blog posts, most blog posts should have been tweets and most tweets should never have been written. - Unknown Tweeter

Another set of AI-heavy links. I can’t help myself right now.

1. Set up a fake cricket league:

   These arrangements might have suggested that the league featured professional-grade cricket that an online audience would find worth watching, but in fact, the players weren’t established cricketers or even skilled amateurs. They were locals that Davda had recruited with the promise of paying 400 rupees (about £3.50) per day — twice what people in the area make in daily wages working on farms and for local businesses.

   Respect.

2. How to choose a religion (NYT Paywall):

   But for the general obligation imposed upon us all, as time-bound creatures in a world shot through with intimations of transcendence, a different Eliot line is apt: “For us, there is only the trying. The rest is not our business.”

   I didn’t know Eliot plagiarized The Gita. The book is called Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious. I hope to read this book.

3. I am (not) a Failure: Lessons Learned From Six (and a half) Failed Startup Attempts. I am a sucker for these stories, having a failed startup in my recent past. The conclusion conveniently helps me feel good about the failure.

4. Agency:

   PG

   Paul Graham@paulg · Jan 30

   This may be the most inspiring sentence I've ever read. Which is interesting because it's not phrased in the way things meant to be inspiring usually are.

   

   View on X

5. How to prepare for an AI future: Coincidentally, I ran into a number of pieces on this topic last week. The first one from Tyler Cowen and the second from Nate Silver. Both have the same advice in the first place: use LLMs more than you do and for more things than you do.

6. Using AI to build a nuclear fusor: Combining the wisdom of the previous two links.

7. Using AI to improve learning: I would love to see how the tutor was created. Perhaps I, too, need to take the advice from links 4 & 5 and do this project myself.

1. Why Is Homeowners Insurance Getting So Expensive? by Brian Potter via MR: A great piece objectively exploring a question getting a lot of coverage after the recent LA fires. There’s so much I love about this link. Original, deep analysis of an important question debunking the popular narrative (climate change, see next two links). Also, a great blog on Construction Physics? With 51K subscribers! Isn’t internet the best?

2. Gell-Mann Amnesia: First described by Michael Crichton and apparently nothing to do with Gell-Mann. He just gave it an important sounding name to have it taken seriously.

   Gell -Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.

   In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

   I should make a spaced repetition card for this.

3. Bjorn Lomborg: A good follow if you want to see less depressing news about climate change, for instance that polar bear population has been increasing since the 1960s or that the Great Barrier Reef is doing just fine. Do note that his work is also subject to Gell-Mann Amnesia.

4. Only reason I am posting this is because I am right now in the land of the great UFO scare of 2025, New Jersey. Trump appointed CIA Director? On Fox News? Former Texas Congressman? There should be an emoji for that. Here’s a palate cleanser (via Alex Tabarrok at MR).

   MV

   Marik vR@MvonRen · Jan 23

   CIA Director John Ratcliffe:
   
   UAP/UFOs:
   
   -Exhibit “technologies that we don’t have and, frankly, that we can’t defend against” (!)
   
   -“Are difficult to explain”
   
   -*Tracked by multiple sensors, including satellites*
   
   KEY: “I believe there should be more transparency on this issue.”

   

   View on X

5. Jokic. Watch till the end for the reaction.

   NI

   NBA India@NBAIndia · Jan 24

   No shot is too tough for the Joker! 🃏 A 66-foot masterpiece at the buzzer! 🤯
   
   #ICYMI: Nikola Jokić went 3/4-court against the Kings and nailed it in style! 😮‍💨🔥
   
   #Jokic #MileHighBasketball | @nuggets

   

   View on X

6. Is it better to bribe Trump by purchasing his memecoin or his stock? Not financial advice.

No AI in the links at least, although I cannot confirm or deny if an AI was involved in the selection of these links.

Programming note: Since I am traveling for the next few weeks, some of those letters may only contain the links section.

1. This feels accurate. 😅. He says AGI but looking at the next link I wonder if this is true for plain old AI.

   DK

   David Krueger 🦥 ⏸️ ⏹️ ⏪@DavidSKrueger · Jan 15

   99.99% of people talking about AGI

   

   View on X

2. Two weeks ago, it was Will Smith eating pizza. Now its this. Click the link to see the video. WhatsApp University is about to go nuts.

   EM

   Ethan Mollick@emollick · Jan 13

   I don't think people know that making plausible fake videos is now something that doesn't require a lot of skill or time
   
   I made this Veo video of a man trying out a flying skateboard at CES from a text prompt, 2nd try. Notice the shadows, green light, his body shifts for balance

   

   View on X

3. She Is in Love With ChatGPT (NSFW. NYT Paywall.) And you thought K-Dramas were stealing your spouse.

4. The Serendipity Machine or how to use Twitter better. A few years ago I implemented a simple algorithm on my twitter feed:

   a. Block everyone who talks about politics and

   b. Block everyone who is is dissing / attacking anyone / anything.

   In less than a month my feed stopped being the anxiety inducing, doomscrolling nightmare that it was and transformed into the best source of learning & inspiration on internet. This piece takes you to the next level.

   Committing to writing this newsletter has also been great. Now instead of mindlessly flicking my finger and consuming, I have a purpose every time I open Twitter. Its almost energising to engage actively with each tweet, thoughtfully considering whether its fit to be served to my exceptionally smart and good-looking audience.

5. E(X)>0: An Open Letter to Elon:

   “Your top engineers and programmers are only able to work 80-hour weeks because they can hire nannies and maids, ride in Ubers, and order food delivery. High-skill productivity depends on an abundance of complementary low-skill productivity.”

   As a repeat immigrant, I have many thoughts on this debate going on in US right now. There’s a lot that is wrong with a policy of focusing exclusively on so called Skill or Merit based immigration. This piece from Bryan Caplan makes some good points.

6. The War for India: I am enjoying this talk by Prof. Sarah Paine of the Naval War College. She talks about the history of international conflict and politics in South Asia and the role to US & Russia. I did not know that India supported China’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. 🤯 😱

7. Better ways to wear a Polo: Always a pleasure to see a master in action.

   DG

   derek guy@dieworkwear · Jan 16

   I disagree. This outfit is terrible and I will show you better ways to wear a polo. 🧵

   

   View on X
   DG

   derek guy@dieworkwear · Jan 16

   Like the fedora, it's also saddled with bad social connotations: rich pricks who run on family ties, golfing uncles, and business casual guys at networking conferences where there's plated cantaloupe.

   

   View on X

“…networking conferences where there’s plated cantaloupe.” chef’s kiss.

Here’s another one from Derek:

8. Fix Your Glutes. (NYT Paywall) Strongly endorse. Really helps when trying to hold a fart but many other benefits too.

   My frail-as-porcelain glutes — the cluster of tissue from hip to thigh tasked with keeping the body upright and on occasion propelling it forward — were causing a domino chain of damage, and had most likely been doing so for some time. To compensate for the glutes’ infirmity, my ankles, knees, hips and even my shoulders and arms had to thrash madly, taking on vast and uneven amounts of pressure, often far more than they were structurally fit to bear

   and

   Only after I started remedying my “gluteal amnesia” (real medical term) did it become clear how little I knew about basic affairs like walking, standing and sitting (or living, for that matter). Within a week of the mandated twisting and shimmying and clam-shelling, my spine was noticeably straighter, smoother. Four weeks later and I could finally walk without pain again. It took three months more to fully rebalance my loopy musculature and break into a manageable jog — but when I did, I noticed a wondrous new power to each step and spring. My reawakened haunch muscles were doing their job.

   For the last two months, I have been doing a core workout formulated personally for me by (who else?) ChatGPT, with a special focus on glutes and I can feel the difference, not just in my ability, but my willingness to do things. Core strength is underrated and it isn’t just about the abs. You can have a six-pack and a weak core. I happen to have one of those.

That’s it for this week. It seems like my writing and links are all AI all the time but that isn’t the intention. However it is a space where a lot of fun stuff is happening right now and so that’s the path of least resistant.

I will be on the road for the next few weeks so programming may be light. Hopefully the website will be ready soon.

1. Reflections - Sam Altman:

   We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.

   We are beginning to turn our aim beyond that, to superintelligence in the true sense of the word. We love our current products, but we are here for the glorious future. With superintelligence, we can do anything else. Superintelligent tools could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own, and in turn massively increase abundance and prosperity.

   This sounds like science fiction right now, and somewhat crazy to even talk about it. That’s alright—we’ve been there before and we’re OK with being there again. We’re pretty confident that in the next few years, everyone will see what we see, and that the need to act with great care, while still maximizing broad benefit and empowerment, is so important. Given the possibilities of our work, OpenAI cannot be a normal company.

   Emphasis mine. Those are tall claims. More from Zvi here.

2. How to grow a $3tn market cap? - John Gruber. When You Search for ‘Google’ on Bing, Bing Attempts to Trick You Into Thinking the Results Page Is Google. Don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

3. Having spent more time on LinkedIn last year than anyone should ever have to, I fully endorse this advice. via Shaan Puri.

   D

   dax@thdxr · Jan 4

   the only career advice i have is make every decision that moves you closer to not having to be on linkedin

   View on X

4. It’s the Most Indispensable Machine in the World—and It Depends on This Woman - WSJ (Paywall). One can never get enough of ASML:

   Brienna Hall has the most valuable role that you’ll never see at the most vital company that you’ve never heard of.

   Until she began working at ASML last year, she didn’t know the first thing about the company. She also didn’t know what she would be doing as a customer-support engineer—a “fancy mechanic,” as she calls herself.

   It’s the machine that produces the most advanced microchips on the planet. It was built with scientific technologies that sound more like science fiction—breakthroughs so improbable that they were once dismissed as impossible. And it has transformed wafers of silicon into the engines of modern life.

   Even today, there are only a few hundred of these EUV machines in existence—and they are ludicrously expensive. The one that Hall maintains cost $170 million, while the latest models sell for roughly $370 million.

   But maybe the most remarkable thing about these invaluable machines is that they’re all made by the same company: ASML.

   ASML is the glue holding the chip business together. That’s because this one Dutch company is responsible for all of the EUV lithography systems that help make the chips in so many of your devices. Like your phone. And your computer. And your tablet. And your TV. Maybe even your car, too.

   These machines have become indispensable. And they depend on the invisible work of Brienna Hall.

   Truly a case of following the previous tweet’s advice. Brienna Hall still has a LinkedIn profile, but I give it another 18 months at most.

5. Meta announcements. If you’ve been hiding under a rock and missed this on the airwaves. Not much to add but Zuck knows how to nail a pivot.

1. How to be More Agentic by Cate Hall - Staying with the new year resolution theme… as the twitter meme goes, you can just do things.

2. Life Without Stars: Stanets and Ploons by Julian Gough - Could most life in the Universe exist without stars, in the deep oceans on icy moons of large planets?

3. How to do the jhanas by Nadia Asparouhova

4. Will Smith eating spaghetti - the pace of progress in AI is mind boggling.

5. How Dwarkesh Patel uses AI a podcast by Dan Shipper - Also subscribe to Dwarkesh’s podcast if you don’t already.

6. A Tutorial on Teaching Data Analytics with Generative AI by Robert L. Bray